Author: bryanweather

Wild weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The weather is about to take a turn to the wild and even dangerous side if you will. This will be a quick post, but the threat for intense and possibly even severe thunderstorms here in the Willamette Valley warrants a post.

Details

Saturday will start off like a usual summer day with plenty of sunshine and warm temps. Temperatures should climb into the lower 80s. An upper level low spinning off of our southwestern coast will put into play all the ingredients necessary for strong thunderstorms to form: high moisture content, warm temps, and strong forcing throughout the atmosphere.

At some point between 2pm and 5pm powerful storms will roll up the valley from the south/southeast. Storms could last well through the evening with some weather models hinting at a second round of storms sometime shortly after sunset. Impacts will include gusty winds above 40mph in some locations, heavy rain, localized flooding, and numerous lightning strikes. Hail could be present in these storms too. This is about as close as we can get to a mid west type of storm. Below is the estimated radar for 5pm. Don’t get caught up looking at the exact locations of the storms in this image, but take in the big picture here which is showing very strong storms throughout the Willamette Valley and Cascades Saturday afternoon and evening.

By Sunday morning we will see a return to calmer weather. It will be cooler with more clouds at times with a slight chance of a shower, but no thunderstorms or anything wild.

Mon – Sat: Much of this coming week will be dry, but clouds will be more frequent and highs will generally stay in the upper 70s to near 80°. Additionally, there will be a slight chance for showers almost each day. No all day washouts, and the majority of this coming week will be dry, but the risk for a shower will be present.

Take care, and stay safe Saturday with the storms out there!

Rain update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Now that we are much closer to the forecasted rain event, it appears totals will remain on the lighter side. Again, this goes to show how tough and rare significant rainfall is here in summer. In the previous post, I avoided giving any estimated rainfall totals as there was still too much uncertainty, but now I can say we are looking at maybe a tenth of an inch of rain which is still noteworthy in the dead of summer, but not the big soaking we might have hoped for. Mountains should pick up a little bit more, and the cooler temperatures along with the higher humidity will certainly help with the wildfire efforts.

Details

Mon: Mostly cloudy with light rain showers and sprinkles on and off through the day. Rain will not amount to much, but it will make for a much cooler day and damp at times.

Tue: A mostly cloudy day with more sun as the day goes on. Slight chance for a morning shower, but shower chances will disappear quickly leading to a dry afternoon and evening.

Wed: Warmer and mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90°.

Thu – Sun: Mostly sunny and hot with highs ranging from 94 to 98°. Lows each night should drop down into the lower 60s.

Time will tell how much this “storm” actually helps with the fires currently burning, but we know every little bit helps.

Terrible wildfires and some really good news

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Nearly three weeks of intense heat earlier this month coupled with dry thunderstorms has lead to a devastating wildfire situation here in Oregon. Add in a few human caused fires (unfortunately), plus a rather poor forest management system, and just like that, we are in the midst of a terrible fire season. It may not feel devastating to us here in the Willamette Valley as we are not having ash or thick smoke descending upon us as in past years; but numerous large fires are occurring, and this map here shows them well.

Here’s a link to where this map came from in case you’re interested in learning more: https://projects.oregonlive.com/wildfires/map

Again, this is largely a result of brutal heat followed by multiple rounds of thunderstorms which put out lots of lightning. I remember when summer began nice and slow back in June providing hope we might escape the large fires this year; however, things changed fast and not for the better.

I felt it was important to share just how bad things are as I’ve noticed many people here in Salem have been rather oblivious to the current fire situation due to the lack of thick smoke. Salem is also currently on track for the warmest July on record. As of the 24th, we were an astounding seven degrees above normal for the month, but with “cooler” summertime weather forecasted for the remainder of July, we will see where we end up.

Much better news ahead!!!

Here is the really good news. We have a rare summertime “rainstorm” heading our way for next week. Indeed this is very rare to see in the dead of summer, but models are pretty set on Salem seeing widespread measurable rain next Monday and Tuesday.

Details

Now through Sunday: AM clouds with mostly sunny afternoons. Very comfortable temperatures each day with highs ranging from 82 to 88°.

Monday: The morning should start off dry, but showers and even some rain will move in during the afternoon and will last through the evening. Highs in the mid 70s.

Tuesday: A few showers with sunbreaks in between. Some showers could be on the heavier side. Highs again in the mid 70s.

Wed – Sun: The remainder of the following week will be warm, mostly sunny, and dry. Fairly normal summer weather. Highs on the upper end of “normal” topping out in the upper 80s to near 90°. Lows in the mid 50s.

Summertime rain not associated with thunderstorms is very rare. The warm atmosphere, the stabilizing effect of the Pacific Ocean, and an extremely weak summertime jet stream in the northern Pacific all provide us with reliably dry summers. It’s true our summers have turned hotter and drier in recent years, but truth is, they have (for as long as we know) always been reliably warm and dry. I’m interested to see how this storm develops and how much rain we actually get out of it. To put into perspective how rare a rainy July day is around these parts, take a look at this graph below. It shows total rainfall here in Salem for the month of July going back to 1970.

Three things stand out to me:

1.) We had some unusually wet Julys in the 80s. Imagine the rough tomato crops those years. 😦

2.) Dry Julys are nothing new. If you go back even further in time, you would notice that Salem had four complete dry Julys during the decade of the 1950s.

3.) Rain in July has become less common over the past 25 years.

This won’t show on the graph, but 2019 was the last time we had more than a quarter inch of rain in one day during the month of July which again speaks to the rareness of this event. Of course it hasn’t happened yet, but odds are high we will pick up at least some rain next week.

Take care! 🙂

A chance for showers and storms

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have another opportunity for showers and maybe some thunderstorms tonight and Sunday morning. Other than that, the rest of the coming week looks good with cooler nighttime lows, more morning clouds than what we’ve seen lately with warm and sunny afternoons. Highs in the 80s. No 90s whatsoever after today through at least next Sunday.

Details

Tonight through Sunday morning: A good chance we see more widespread showers than what we saw earlier this week. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms could take place anywhere west of the Cascades. Things clear up Sunday afternoon and highs will likely still reach the low to mid 80s.

The main theme for this coming week will be the near normal temperatures, lack of heat, and cooler nighttime lows. Overall it should be a pretty decent week as far as the weather goes.

Enjoy and happy Saturday!

Much more comfortable

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

After 13 days straight of 90 plus degree weather (which is the 2nd longest stretch in recorded history), we finally have a much more comfortable summer weather on the way with one exception.

Details

Thu & Fri: Some morning clouds. with cool temps each morning. Lows both days will start out around 55° and highs will be close to 90 degrees.

Sat: This is the one exception to our more comfortable weather. Highs will once again soar into the upper 90s which is a little too hot in my opinion.

Sun: There is a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms again on Sunday. I’m watching this day closely as there is still a lot of disagreement regarding the track of the storm. Rain or no rain, highs Sunday should end up in the low to mid 80s.

Mon – Wed: Highs in the mid 80s and lows between 53 and 56°. Very nice summer weather.

That’s all for now. Last night’s brief thunderstorm excitement put on quite the show for some of you. East valley locations like Sweet Home, Molalla, and Scio all had a good lightning display. Corvallis on the west side of the valley had a notable thunderstorm roll through as well. Unfortunately, the storms also ignited dozens of new wildfires. Hopefully the impact from these new fires can be minimal.

Intense heat and thunderstorms

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The heat is making its presence known today. Check out the toasty hot temperatures across the region as of 5PM.

Note the downright chilly temperatures right along the immediate coastline – specifically Newport. The colder than average sea surface temperatures (due to upwelling) are making their presence felt there as well, just in a very localized manner. It’s just amazing to see a 47 degree difference between Salem and Newport.

Tonight through early Wednesday morning anyone could experience a thunderstorm. These storms have the potential to produce significant lightning which is fun to see, but terrible news for the dry forests. New fires seem almost certain to start from this. Hopefully more rain falls than is currently being predicted.

Speaking of predictions, take a look at this image showing the estimated radar for midnight our time. Avoid getting caught up in the details of the shower and storm locations. The main message here is scattered storms will develop and cross over the Willamette Valley tonight.

Highs for both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s. It will be nice to finally leave the 90s behind for a few days. Lows Wednesday morning may be held up higher due to cloud cover, but lows Thursday should drop down to around 55°.

Stay safe out there!

Heat and storm update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A little bit in the way of weather action going on over the next 48 hours. The first thing to cover is the heat. As advertised, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday. Add in some extra humidity, and we are in store for a muggy and uncomfortable day by our western Oregon standards.

The thunderstorm chances are still very much on track. Rarely do we have a slam dunk when it comes to thunderstorms around here, and this case is no different. Anyone from the coast all the way to the Cascades has a chances at seeing thunderstorms or left over showers Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. Best chance at seeing precip or any storms will be between 4pm Tuesday until sunrise Wednesday.

Wednesday: will likely stay on the not as hot side thanks to increased cloud cover and cooler marine air. I’m thinking highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday: Lows in the mid 50s to start the day before temps rise into the upper 80s.

Friday and Saturday: Both days will be hot with highs back into the 90s between 93 and 96°.

Sunday: We could see another chance for showers and or thunderstorms, but it’s still several days away, so we will concern ourselves with it at a later time.

Stay safe and enjoy the weather the best you can!