A very active week ahead

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Short version

Three very wet, and windy storm systems are lined up for this coming week. The stormiest time frames with steady rain and gusty winds will be:

  • Monday
  • Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
  • All day Thursday through Friday morning

Remember you can join Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord too. Discord is a great platform (without all the junk or distractions Facebook and Instagram have lol), and works very well for posting quick updates to the forecast, especially when there is a lot of action going on. It’s also a great place to easily share weather related photos. Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord

Recap of warm week and look ahead

In all reality, other than Monday and Tuesday, this past week has been quite pleasant. We had some really, Really warm weather earlier in the week. Salem had back to back days with high temperatures of 62°. Believe it or not, neither 62° high was a new record. Way back in 1929, Salem recorded balmy 70 and 71 degree highs for those two dates. Of course, as soon as the warm southerly winds died down, the fog and low clouds moved right in, and we have been stuck in them ever since.

We have three separate storms coming up for this week, and all of them will bring steady rain and gusty winds. By this time next weekend, I expect at least another 3 inches of rain here. There is still uncertainty about flooding for this Thursday and Friday, but I’m watching it closely, and you should also be watching for future updates as time gets closer. 🙂

Extended forecast

Details

Monday: Our first real rainy day of the week. Breezy at times, but mild. I’m thinking gusts around 30mph give or take, and rainfall totals around half an inch.

Tuesday evening & Wednesday: This storm will pack a quite a punch. A very strong cold front moves in late Tuesday evening bringing very gusty winds along with heavy rain. Rain totals half an inch to an inch, and wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will range from from 40 to nearly 50mph. Rain lets up dramatically Wednesday morning transitioning into a few showers. Some sunbreaks are even likely during the afternoon hours between showers.

Thursday & Friday: Steady rain all day Thursday continues all the way through Friday morning. 24 rainfall totals are expected to be well over an inch with this system. I’m watching this one closely in case rainfall totals trend up any higher. At least some localized flooding is possible with such hefty totals.

Coast

Strong winds are forecasted for Monday, Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, and again on Thursday. Gusts 45 to 55mph with all three storms. The coast is much more accustomed to such conditions, but the back to back nature of these storms over several days will lead to a few downed trees and isolated power outages over the coming week in coastal communities. Surf will generally be running high as well. Watching for coastal flooding and river flooding – especially during Thursday & Friday.

Cascades

Great news for the snowpack and ski resorts. We finally start building up some mountain snow this week.

  • A pretty good dumping of snow is expected Wednesday.
  • More snow will fall Thursday morning.
  • Additional snowfall is expected on the cooler backside of Friday’s storm, and should last right through next weekend.

Here’s a general forecast for the major Cascade passes. I’ve never done one of these graphics for the mountains, but I thought it could be useful. I figure this is good for Government Camp, McKenzie–Santiam Pass, and Willamette Pass.

Below is a snowfall map going through Friday the 19th. I see a lot of snow totals higher than two feet! 🙂

Okay, have a wonderful rest of your evening, and a great Sunday!

Drying out plus a look at next week

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a soaker the past couple of days! Some hefty rain totals as shown on this map.

You can see how effective the mountains are in this pattern at ringing out available moisture with 8 to 10 inches falling in parts of the Coast and Cascade ranges.

Focusing on the mid Willamette Valley, it appears as though the biggest flooding issues were a few closed streets, some flooded parking lots, and a lot of field flooding outside of town. No major/widespread flooding here. Both the Luckiamute and Pudding rivers are still rising, and will peak this afternoon/evening. Here’s a forecast for the Pudding River by the time it reaches Aurora.

Flooding has been more serious out along the coast, in the Coast Range, and up in western Washington where the flooding has been much more severe.

Forecast

If you want drier weather, then you are in luck. Counting today, we have two mostly dry days followed by two completely dry (albeit foggy) days. A four day stretch of mostly dry weather. Seems deserved doesn’t it?

Today and Thursday: Mostly cloudy and mostly dry. Slight chance for a few light showers, especially overnight into early Thursday morning. Very warm for this time of year as we continue to be on the warm side of the jet stream. Highs near 60 today and Thursday.

FRI & SAT: Dry, but fog is very likely along with afternoon clouds each day. Highs closer to 50°.

SUN: Periods of light rain. Still very warm with a high of 55°.

Next week

Next week looks really wet again. At the moment I see three more significant storms with showers during the in-between times. The first storm comes in on Monday, another one Wednesday, and a third arrives for Thursday & Friday. The third storm looks “juicy” with lots of moisture to work with, and since we have saturated soils, plus rivers running higher than normal, we could be looking at another flooding scenario. Too far out to know details, but keep this in mind.

Disaster preparedness

Hey, if you’re not already, use this week to make sure you have the essentials you need to survive if we have a major storm or disruption to our supply chains. For the vast majority of us, this rainstorm did not cause any serious issues, but that might not be the case next time, and why wait to rush to the store for basic essentials when a storm is on our doorstep?

Finally, I see some hope for our mountain snowpack and ski resorts. Wednesday’s storm might end up being a big mountain snow producer as we finally dip to the colder side of the jet stream. Not sure if the snow will last or not, but it’s a good sign as our mountains are way behind in snowpack for the moment.

I’ll have plenty more details on next week’s storms in a few days. For now, time to take it easy, and I leave you with these high water photos taken around the Salem area Tuesday.

Soaking rain still on track

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Today went mostly as planned. Here are the fresh rain totals as of 8pm. Check out the intense rainfall totals along the coastline and to the north of Portland!

As expected, a steep rise in totals as one heads north. Even within Salem, totals have varied quite a bit with more than half an inch so far in northeast Salem, while the airport is only at 0.28″.

What’s ahead?

The heaviest rain of the entire event has been advertised to show up tonight, and will last on and off through Tuesday. Basically the firehose of moisture will be pointed more directly at Salem over the next 24 hours. By Tuesday night, it will have moved back to our north again, which means Salem could end up being mostly cloudy with just a few sprinkles/periods of drizzle on Wednesday. Steadier rain will continue to linger up around Portland on Wednesday.

Some flooding is still quite likely from Salem northward tonight through Tuesday night. The next image shows the estimated rainfall totals through 4PM Wednesday.

Bottom line

The wind should die down dramatically later tonight (midnight), but until then, strong gusts could knock out power for a few of us. Heavy rain, low visibility at times, standing water on roadways, flooding creeks, and flooding in low lying areas will all be issues for us over the next 24 hours. Mudslides are also possible in the hills and steeper areas around the region. Let’s see what happens, but I think Tuesday is going to be a wild day around the area.

Rest of the week

Just a few scattered light showers for Thursday, and both Friday and Saturday should be dry with highs in the low 50s. Rain returns on Sunday.

I hope it was a great Monday, and I hope Tuesday is even better! 🙂 Stay safe out there!!

Rainstorm approaching

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Many of the details from my previous post are still valid. As is the case with weather, there are almost always some last minute twists and turns. I’ve got what I think are all the important details for you right here. 🙂

Important highlights

  • Steady rain develops Monday and lasts through Wednesday.
  • The heaviest rain for Salem will take place Monday night through Tuesday evening.
  • Flooding risk here in the valley is highest Albany to Portland. Heaviest rain totals farther north.
  • Less rain south of Albany. This will really be an Albany – Corvallis and northward event.
  • Much lighter rain (for Salem) is now more likely Wednesday.
  • Portland metro will continue to see heavier rainfall during the day Wednesday.

Additional details

I’ve compiled three separate rainfall forecasts showing totals through 4AM Wednesday morning. There will be more rain on Wednesday, but the heaviest amounts should be over by then. This also gives you a really good visual of where the heaviest rain can be expected. Clearly, there is a steep increase in rainfall the farther north you go.

Looking at those, and combining a few other factors into my forecast, and I think 2 to 3 inches of rain is a safe bet for the Salem area. Much more the higher up in elevation you go, more out along the coast, and more the farther north you go. Locations from Albany down to Eugene will probably escape with an inch to 2 inches.

Flooding specifics

My thoughts on flooding potential have narrowed as well. Seems like the focus of the heaviest rain will be just north of Albany up to Portland, so rivers roughly between those two cities have the highest shot of reaching flood stage. The risk of river flooding drops off quite a bit as you head closer to Eugene and points south.

I will add that flooding on our small urban creeks greatly depends on rainfall rates, and we really can’t be 100% sure about such things. If we do get flooding on our local creeks, it will happen Tuesday which is when Salem will see the heaviest rainfall rates.

That’s all for the forecast. Please join the Bryan Weather Alert Community on Discord. It’s a great place to receive short and important updates to the forecast when I don’t have time for these longer posts, plus you can share your own local weather conditions on there (if you wish to), and lastly, it’s an excellent and easy spot to share weather related photos. Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord

Lastly, I leave you with this really, REALLY cool satellite image showing the absolutely massive and extremely long atmospheric river which is about to be aimed right at Oregon. Yes, this looong stretch of clouds will slide south towards Oregon, and will be responsible for bringing us rainfall over the next 3 to 4 days.

Stay safe and have a great Monday!

Heavy rains, flooding next week

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a busy day for me looking over flood maps, rain charts, and different forecasts. Needless to say, we have some very heavy rain on the way, and not only heavy, but prolonged too with some flooding looking very likely now. Details below:

The quick version

Typical rainy weather continues now through Monday, and by this I mean periods of rain or scattered showers. Some brief periods of moderate to heavy rain, but no threat for flooding during this time frame. Between now and Monday afternoon I expect around 1 – 1.5 inches of rain in total.

Monday night through Wednesday: Steady rain during the majority of both these days with frequent periods of heavier rain. Winds will be pretty gusty at times throughout this period too. I’m thinking gusts 35 to 40mph. Not real strong, but if soils are saturated, and they will be, I could see a few isolated instances of trees coming down here in the valley and along with those trees, some power lines. Please be prepared for some power outages next week.

Extended forecast

We are approaching the event and close enough to share some estimated rainfall totals. I’m thinking Salem easily sees over 2 inches between Tuesday and Wednesday alone, and this could be a rare time where we see upwards of 4 inches within a couple of days. Depending on which side of these totals we end up on, we could see some real serious localized flooding on the small creeks around town.

Remember, in situations like this conditions can vary greatly depending on location. My forecasts are typically centered around Salem, but generally can be used and are valid for locations like: Monmouth, Independence, Albany, Silverton, Wilsonville, Canby, and any locations nearby or in between. This next graphic shows my thoughts for this region for Monday – Wednesday.

This next graphic covers flood risk for local rivers. There are many more creeks and rivers around our region than I had time for, but this should give you a good idea of what to expect.

If you live near any sort of creek, river, flood basin etc. that is not listed, then you should be paying attention to water levels and hopefully you can sort of estimate what might happen based on the information I’ve provided.

For the most part, expect smaller creeks to rise quickly during the midst of our rainstorm next week, but those same creeks should fall shortly after the heaviest rains end. The mid sized streams and rivers take longer to rise to flood stage which is why most of those may not flood until late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

I still do not expect the Willamette River to flood. It will of course rise a lot, and I could see River Road heading out towards Independence closing (maybe), but there is just no snowpack to melt, and the Cascade reservoirs have a ton of storage capacity right now. Our biggest floods historically have always happened when we have a large snowpack present in the Cascades, and (typically) when the reservoirs are already closer to capacity. Those two factors are really going to save us from what could have been much worse flooding this time.

The coast and Coast Range

Stormy! Not necessarily super strong winds or huge waves, but the combination of the heavy rain, gusty winds, and higher than normal waves for several days straight will make for wild times along our coastline. Rain totals of 5 to 8 inches are likely over the next five days, wind gusts of 40 to 50mph Monday afternoon through Wednesday night, and at least some flooding is likely on most of the coastal rivers.

Phew! There’s a lot going on next week, and winter is still young, so I’ve created a Discord server with several “channels” on it. On Discord you will find a channel where you can share questions, comments, or your current weather conditions. There is a “photos” channel designed for easily sharing weather related photos. I’ve also added a couple of channels for linking these “Bryan Weather Alert” forecasts, and lastly, I added a channel which will be great for sharing quick, but important updates to the forecast! It should be a lot of fun, an easy place to finally share weather related photos together, and a great way to engage as a community a little.

Please feel free to join the Bryan Weather Alert community on this newly created Discord server! Bryan Weather Alerts on Discord

Take care, and stay safe out there! I’m certain I’ll have more updates in the next few days.

Much wetter pattern on the way

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are several days into what has been a pretty dry stretch of weather, but there are clear signals this will be changing soon. At least some rain is expected every single day for at least the next eight days beginning Thursday (the 4th). Some days the rain will be light and spotty, and other days (especially next Tuesday and Wednesday) the rain will be heavier, steadier, and more widespread. Details below:

Details

The short version is that we have a very mild, but wet pattern coming up. No mountain snow whatsoever for ski resorts with this type of pattern. Maybe some snow briefly Thursday before temperatures warm up. Lots of highs in the 50s and lows struggling to dip into the 40s.

We have seen similar setups before. If the rain is spread out enough over a long enough period of time then we typically avoid any sort of flooding issues. If it falls heavy enough for a long enough period of time then we see flooding. Pretty straight forward.

What about flooding?

Right now my thoughts are tomorrow (Thursday) through Monday will be regular western Oregon rainy days. Nothing too wild. If you find yourself outdoors then you will need to plan accordingly. Tuesday through Thursday of next week hold the potential to be more impactful. Still too early to know how much rain will fall, but it’s becoming increasingly likely this time frame will feature heavier rainfall which could lead to some sort of flooding issues. Continue reading for more details. 🙂

Currently I don’t see a threat for major flooding for two reasons: the very low water levels in our reservoirs, plus the lack of any meaningful snowpack. If we do see flooding next week it’s more likely to occur along the coast and Coast Range. Any flooding in the valley would be at a more localized/smaller scale – think Pudding River, the Luckiamute River, and maybe some of the local creeks around town, and again, nothing major. I plan to have a fresh update Friday with more details.

November 2025

The month is all wrapped up and honestly, there’s very little to say about it. November 2025 was damp with the majority of days experiencing at least a little bit of rain, but with very few big rainstorms or heavy rain events. The result? A drier than normal November.

As far as temperatures are concerned, well it was a mild month. Salem had 19 days with above normal highs! These two graphs depict our temperature situation from the month very well. Our coldest highs occurred of foggy days that never really cleared out. Otherwise, no big cold spells this past month to speak of.

Take care and have a wonderful rest of your week!

Mostly dry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The forecast is basically going as planned. We had a wet few days, and now we’re on track to have a pretty nice post Thanksgiving weekend.

This weekend

Go look outside and what you see is sort of what the rest of the weekend will look like: lots of cloud cover, but mostly dry. We have a slight chance for a shower or two late in the day Saturday and Saturday night, but that’s it for rain chances. Putting up Christmas lights, decorating, Christmas tree hunting etc. will be a little bit easier this year thanks to the mostly dry weather. 🙂

Next week

Honestly, more of the same. Foggy mornings, lots of cloud cover during the daytime hours, and a few sunbreaks here and there. Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s (depending on how long fog sticks around each day), and no big storms in sight still. The only chance for rain will be Tuesday with a few scattered showers; otherwise, this mostly dry weather should last at least through next Friday (December 5th).

If we can manage enough clearing at night, then we could see some widespread frost Monday and Thursday mornings with lows near 32°.

As far as mountain snow goes, I still don’t see anything real promising showing up on long rang models just yet, but trust me, I’m watching! 🙂

Alright, that’s all for right now. Don’t stop being thankful for the life we have, the salvation God offers us, the people in our lives, and the things we have. Have an excellent & safe weekend!