The rain returned as promised, and sticks around for a few more days. Here are your quick highlights with additional details below:

Highlights

• Showery Friday. High of 52°.
• Foggy Saturday morning, but mostly sunny afternoon. High of 55°.
• Showers and sunbreaks on Sunday. Some heavier showers possible. High of 53°.
• Monday through Friday: Dry and mild. Foggy mornings are likely, but the fog shouldn’t last all day. Highs in the mid to upper 50s to near 60°.

Details

Saturday will be the only dry day this weekend, but it looks to be pretty amazing with highs in the mid 50s. I’m curious how long any valley fog that develops sicks around Saturday morning. If this was mid January the call would be for fog all day long, but the sun angle is getting a little higher now, and I think we should see a really sunny afternoon Saturday.

This is a high temperature map for Saturday. Notice Salem is cooler (56°) versus 60s out along the coastline.

After a showery and cool day Sunday, we dry back out for next work week. There’s a good chance Monday has some fog and leftover clouds holding temperatures down. High of 52°.

Then check out Tuesday! Fog is the only factor (sometimes difficult to predict several days out) that could hinder high temperatures Tuesday. Regardless, Tuesday’s going to be a very mild day for the pacific northwest. Mid to upper 60s likely along the coast. Should be great weather at our beaches! Look at those high temps for Tuesday. 🙂

Notice the valley is still cooler than both the coast and Cascade foothills. This is due to the inversion layer being slower to break up there. Remember, an inversion takes place when cooler air is trapped below a layer of warm air.

Overall, a great stretch of weather on tap next week. I feel pretty confident the nice dry weather lasts through next Friday (Feb 6th), and possibly through the 7th. Lots of mid to upper 50s, and maybe a 60° day mixed in there for mid Willamette Valley.

Lows each morning will drop well into the 30s. Afterall, it is still winter, and the nights are long, but layers will be the name of the game next week with mild & sunny afternoons each day.

This is a ways out there, but I see pretty solid agreement that wetter and cooler weather makes a comeback to the region on Super Bowl Sunday (8th) or the 9th.

Take care, and enjoy the beautiful weather!!!

We still have a few more chilly and mostly dry days ahead before wetter weather finally makes a return. 

Highlights

• Very cold tonight. Tonight could be the coldest night so far this winter with lows heading for the lower 20s. Upper teens are possible in the outlying areas near the Coast Range and foothills of the Cascades.
• Watching Monday for a few very cold rain showers.
• Dry Tuesday.
• Light showers and some rain return for Wed – Sun. Yes, the dry weather is coming to an end this week.

Details

Wet weather finally makes a comeback beginning on Wednesday. At least some rain is expected each day from Wednesday through next Sunday. If you have really enjoyed the dry weather, then enjoy now through Tuesday. This rainfall chart for Salem shows the light rain potential lasting through the first few days of February:

Looking at this and other charts, I see no sign of heavy rains, flooding, strong winds, or huge dumps of mountain snow heading our way. These will be weak storm systems bringing light rain at times, and maybe a few inches of mountain snow, but little more than that.

A few more thoughts

In my previous post I mentioned how every great once in a while we experience a really bad snowpack year.  I also mentioned that there is still part of winter and all of spring to make things up a bit. I did a bit of digging around in the records a little, and it was difficult to find very many examples of years with similar mountain snowpack levels (or lack of) which still turned around in the spring. 

One example of when things did get better was the winter of 2004/2005.  Very poor snowpack conditions persisted through February of that year before finally turning around in March.  Too late for ski resorts, but it at least helped the region avoid a major drought that summer.  

Ideally, things will improve much sooner, but I’m not holding my breath as there are no signs of a big mountain snow pattern. Just these weak weather systems.

Let’s see what happens.

Stay safe out there and enjoy the cold clear night tonight.

Happy Wednesday! Three short highlights for those short on time with more details below.

1.) We’re in the midst of a very calm and low key weather pattern. Temperatures continue to vary each day depending on winds, cloud cover, and fog. Highs ranging from the mid 5os (like we saw just a few days ago) down to the 30s (like we are seeing today). Lows remain more consistent continuing to drop into the upper 20s or low 30s each night. This weather pattern lasts through next Wednesday.

2.) Very strong gusty east winds develop in the Columbia River Gorge Thursday, and last through Sunday. Areas near 205 eastward will be effected the most all the way through the west end of the gorge.

3.) A change to wetter (and possibly colder) weather occurs next Wednesday or Thursday. Too far out for details, but weather models are indicating the large area of high pressure currently over us is going to retrograde (meaning slide west) allowing colder air to approach the Pacific Northwest.

Details

This map below shows what the atmosphere looks like at around 18,000 feet up today.

It’s extremely warm up above us. In summertime, this same pattern would easily give us 90s or even a 100 degree day. See what a difference the sun angel and length of day can make! Instead we are stuck in a cold layer of fog. Look at the satellite image from earlier today.

Fog is stuck in the Willamette Valley while the rest of the state basks in sunshine.

Typically it gets colder higher up you go in an airmass, and that is still true today. The thing is, we have two separate airmasses at play here. The first airmass is our inversion layer. Underneath this blanket of fog, it does get colder the higher up you go, but once you pop out above the fog and enter into the second airmass above us, temperatures warm dramatically. Check out the wild inversion going on right now.

When is the last time you saw Government Camp on Mount Hood more than 20 degrees warmer than Salem? It’s a beautiful day up on the mountain! Santiam Pass is also very mild sitting at a balmy 63°.

If you view this post on the website (instead of the email version), then you can use the slider tool below to show the dramatic change expected next week. The first image shows the atmosphere today. Find Oregon on the map, and notice the very warm anomaly over us represented by the warm brown and deep red colors. The second image shows us what it looks like ten days later – much cooler/colder for sure!

No valley snow predictions yet. Might not snow at all here in the valley, but a colder airmass is on the way for the PNW, and more importantly, additional mountain snow.

Fortunately, we got all that mountain snow last week (24 to 30 inches) allowing resorts to open limited terrain during this long dry stretch. If you are in the snow recreation industry then you know it’s been an extremely tough season though, but help is on the way again. Just need to hang in there for about 7 or 8 more days…

I plan to update you all again once the details for later next week start to come into view. For now, enjoy the week and as always, stay safe out there!

Very short post on this rainy and windy night providing a heads up for what should be a stormy Wednesday and chilly couple of days.

Wednesday in particular looks stormy. Gusty winds to 40mph, small hail, downpours, thunder and lightning, and even some wet snow are all possible Wednesday. Brief sunbreaks between showers, but plan on intense downpours ruling the day. Here’s couple of estimated radar images revealing what looks like a line of heavier rain moving through roughly between 9AM and noon Wednesday. Click for a closer look. 🙂

Snow levels drop to 1000 to 1500 feet Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Coast Range locations and communities up the Santiam River Canyon (Mill City, Gates etc.) could all see a little dusting of wet snow during this time frame. Salem’s high on Thursday will top out only around 43°.

Cascade passes get the brunt of this series of storms with 18 to 26″ of snow falling now through Friday morning. Now through Wednesday night will be the worse travel times, but snow showers continue right into Friday morning before finally tapering off. Hopefully this will be enough for ski resorts to open up.

We have a mostly dry weekend ahead for the mountains which would make getting to the snow and ski parks much easier come Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Stay safe and happy Wednesday! 🙂

The weather action is picking up with several different storms arriving over the next week. I’ve got a nice new extended forecast for you all. These graphics are better at communicating the time of day rain can be expected. For example, you can see Tuesday morning should be dry, but rain will move in during the afternoon. Remember you can click on images for a closer view. 🙂

Highlights

Snow levels dip pretty low for the first time this winter Thursday morning through early Friday morning. During this time period, snow showers could fall in the Coast Range and other foothill locations like Silver Creek Falls.

It will also be a wet week. No flooding, but I expect multiple rounds of rain and heavy showers in the coming week. Estimated precip totals show a widespread soaking over the course of the next several days which is good news.

The Cascades

Perhaps even better news is that these storms will bring the snowiest weather the Cascades have seen all winter. It’s been one of the worst ski seasons ever, and the snowpack is severely behind schedule, but this parade of storms will finally bring much needed snow and hopefully enough to open more terrain for the snow parks.

This next map shows estimated snowfall totals through Friday the 9th. Ignore the snow showing up in the Willamette Valley as it tends to overdo the low snow levels. The main takeaways are: lots of mountain snow (3 to maybe 4 feet of it), and snow levels will be low enough for the Coast Range and foothills to see a little bit of snow.

The Cascades will be snow covered the majority of the time Sunday through Friday. Best times to travel the Cascades without too much snowfall would be today, Sunday late morning and afternoon, and Monday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening through Thursday night look to be the very snowiest timeframe with heavy snow likely in the passes.

Bottom line is it’s going to be cooler, there will be plenty of valley rain, and (finally) lots of mountain snow. Take care, happy new year again, and stay safe out there!

A brief post during this festive week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. No fun charts or maps today. Just wanted to highlight a few travel concerns as we look towards the new year.

The first area of concern is the Columbia River Gorge and Basin between Thursday morning and Friday morning. A light wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet should begin around 10AM to 1PM (from south to north) on Thursday. Freezing rain ends early Friday afternoon.

Locations I’m thinking could be impacted by ice include but are not limited to: highway 197 around Dufur, 97 near Wasco, and I-84 out towards Hermiston (maybe Pendleton), and as far west as Cascade Locks. Warmer air at the surface moves in late Friday afternoon or evening ending the threat for ice in the Columbia River Basin.

The coast is our second area of concern where higher than usual waves will coincide with the “King Tides” on Saturday. Could be decent wave watching weather Saturday afternoon, but use caution as wind gusts reach 40 to 50mph and heavy showers reduce visibility at times along our rugged coastline.

Salem area forecast

WED: Another very cold morning. Lows around 26 – 28° and highs in the low to mid 40s. Increasing clouds, but dry.

THU (New Year’s Day): Mostly cloudy and chilly. High only near 40°. Light rain during the afternoon.

FRI: Mostly cloudy with a light shower or two. Milder, high of 52°.

SAT: Showers throughout the day and windy. Wind gusts 30 to 40mph. High around 54°.

SUN: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and sunbreaks. High near 50°.

MON: A mostly dry day, but plenty of clouds around. Highs in the upper 40s.

Enjoy the extra time off for those of you who get some extra time off. Party and drive safely, and happy new year!!! 🙂