Greetings! It’s been awhile since the last update. Had a busy, but really fun weekend sneaking in some camping before summer weather comes to an end, and I hope you all had a great weekend too! I’m back in the saddle again with a quick update covering the rest of our week. 🙂

Highlights

• Scattered downpours likely this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
• Some of these downpours could produce lightning and thunder.
• Plenty of sunbreaks and dry times in between.
• We dry out with partly to mostly sunny skies Wed – Sat.
• Shower chances increase again on Sunday.

Details

For the rest of today through Tuesday evening the Willamette Valley will be under the influence of an upper level low. This low will produce scattered showers of varying strength. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, most locations should experience plenty of sunbreaks during the in between times.

These showers have the potential to be very heavy with lightning and thunder also being possible. Some of these showers, especially the ones which pop up Tuesday, could be slow moving resulting in localized downpours. It’s virtually impossible to know exactly where the showers will pop up in this type of pattern; however, I’m confident by this time Wednesday a few of you will have picked up some hefty rainfall totals (more than half an inch). The map below shows the estimated radar for 6pm Tuesday evening, and illustrates the potential for scattered storms fairly well.

This forecasting tool is advertising several extremely heavy scattered showers dotting the Willamette Valley between Corvallis and the Portland metro. Notice not everyone gets a huge storm or soaking, but if a storm happens to move across your neighborhood then it becomes a pretty big deal.

The Willamette Valley dries out Wednesday, and we stay dry through Saturday. Our next threat for showers doesn’t show up until Sunday. Highs in the mid 70s Wed – Fri. Highs reaching the low 80s on Saturday.

The Cascades and central Oregon

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the foothills and Cascades each afternoon and evening through Thursday. As this upper level low slowly moves eastward, central and eastern Oregon will also experience some very heavy thunderstorms. Everywhere from Klamath Falls up through Bend and out over to La Grande can expect big soakings coming up this Wednesday and Thursday!

Most mountain locations finally dry out for both Friday and Saturday.

There you have it! Enjoy whatever heads your way and stay safe out there!

Headlines

• Hot afternoons this week equals hot homes, businesses, and hot classrooms for this first week of school.
• Clouds and increasing smoke keep the extremely hot temperatures at bay.
• Clouds and increased humidity will result in warmer nights.
• Slight chance for thunderstorms/showers tonight and Wednesday.
• Higher chance for more widespread thunderstorms and showers Friday night and Saturday.
• Thunderstorms are likely in the Cascades each afternoon and evening today through Saturday.

Details

The heat is still on, but with a familiar plot twist. Similar to what we experienced last week, thunderstorms and clouds from dissipating storms are going to keep the hottest temperatures down, but with the clouds comes increased moisture. The humidity this week cause nighttime temperatures to be noticeable warmer than what we experienced this past weekend. Expect lows to range from 62 to 65° through Friday night. Lows return to the 50s again come Sunday morning.

Smoke (mostly high above us) will become more pronounced today. This makes for hazy skies, and consequently, lower daytime high temperatures than what I was predicting just a few days ago. I’m thinking we hit 92° today. Below is a forecast showing smoke density through the atmosphere. Smoke here in Salem should primarily stay above the surface, but it will make for a hazy sunset tonight.

Tonight and Wednesday: A small disturbance, quite similar to the one we saw last week (which triggered a few storms), moves northward late tonight through Wednesday. This has the potential to give anyone either a shower or a thunderstorm tonight through Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday topping out only around 85° due to cloud cover. The majority of locations stay dry for the majority of the day tomorrow. Just know we have a slight shot at seeing a shower or storm anywhere.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies coupled with a hot atmosphere will allow highs to soar into the 90s! High of 94°. Smoke or leftover clouds could once again hinder this forecast, but for now Thursday is looking hot and mostly sunny!

Fri & Sat: Warm with highs well into the 80s on Friday, but with increasing clouds and threat for widespread thunderstorms and showers beginning Friday evening. Storms and showers are even more likely Saturday & Saturday night. Highs Saturday are capped at around 80° due to cloud cover and showers.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 80s.

Mon & Tue: Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s.

The chart below is a helpful tool I enjoy using, especially during our fall and winter season. Remember, time goes from left to right when reading this chart, each horizontal line is a potential outcome being forecasted by this computer (in this case rainfall for Salem, OR), there are 51 potential outcomes on here, and what we are looking for is consistency. The more consistency we see, then the more confident we can be in that general outcome taking place.

On here we can see the rainfall potential for Friday night and Saturday indicated by the first arrow, and the second arrow shows the widespread showers expected next Monday and Tuesday.

That’s all for now! Enjoy the heat the best you can, and stay safe out there!!

I’m pretty happy with how the thunderstorm forecast worked out. Storms in our region of the world are usually very tricky to pinpoint, and as expected some locations really go hammered hard by storms (parts of west Salem out towards Amity) while other locations didn’t get a whole lot, but enough about the past lol. Let’s dive into what’s ahead!

Headlines

• Salem and the mid Willamette Valley remain in a dry pattern for the next ten days – maybe even longer. 
• Temperatures stay on the warm to hot side of things with yet another heatwave this coming week.
• Nighttime temperatures should be a little cooler than the awfully warm ones we have recently experienced.  Lows during the heat next week will range between 60 – 65° as opposed to 65 – 70° which is what we endured over this past week.
• Classrooms in schools without AC are going to be hot for the first week of school.
• Homes, apartments, and businesses without ac will also continue to be warm.

Details

Friday: Cool start to the day with a morning low of 57°. Upper 80s for highs and plenty of sunshine.

Saturday: The coolest day of the next ten with morning clouds likely and partly cloudy skies lasting throughout the day. Lows start in the mid 50s before rising up to around 81°. A very comfortable day! There is a slight chance for a shower, but the vast majority of us will experience yet another totally dry day. Just something to keep in mind.

The rest of next week: We have another heatwave in store for this coming week, and terrible timing for the kids, teachers, and faculty who will be filling our school buildings next week. I’m fairly confident at this point in time that next week will be very hot.

The graphic below covers my thoughts pretty well. Keep in mind green highlighting around the days indicates high confidence in that outcome/forecast, no highlighting indicates a regular level of confidence, and should you ever see yellow highlighting then that would indicate a lower than normal level of confidence. Just something I like to remind people about when displaying this graphic, especially considering how long it’s been since I’ve used it!

Enjoy the warmth the best you can. It’s definitely going to be hot, but I always try to find enjoyment with all of our weather patterns. This season of warmth will eventually give way to the colder and wetter months of fall and winter, so enjoy the best you can and stay safe out there!

The forecast seems to be on track with locations in the Willamette Valley having already experienced thunderstorms this morning. Additional storms are possible anywhere west of the Cascades today, and east of the Cascades too for that matter.

We have an unstable atmosphere and sunbreaks will only aid to further destabilize the atmosphere making it ripe for a few storms. Not everyone will see rain or get lightning and thunder, but it’s a possibility.

Happy Wednesday!! 🙂

For those of you crunched on time here’s the forecast:

• Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
• Dry Thursday through most of next week. Highs in the 80s and lows finally back down into the upper 50s.
• Slight chance for drizzle Saturday morning; otherwise, a warm and dry weekend.
• Highs in the low 90s again next Tue – Thu, but with cooler nights (upper 50s to near 60°).

Details

We have two clashing forces at work affecting our nighttime lows: longer nights and cloudy/muggy conditions.

Yes, it is still summertime, but our sun angle is steadily lowering and it’s noticeable too. Salem has always lived in the shadow of Portland, and I could not find a graphic like the one below for Salem. Honestly though, in the scope of things the information is about the same.

At this point in the year the sun angle is about what it would be during mid April, so despite the very hot regime we are in at the moment, it will continue to become tougher and tougher for our temperatures to stay uncomfortably warm at night. Take for example the temperature swing from this past Friday afternoon to early Saturday morning. The temperature dropped exactly 40 degrees from 101° all the way down to 61° in just 14 hours. That’s impressive, and it’s a testament to both the very dry airmass we had in place to begin this heatwave, and the longer nighttime hours.

Countering that factor is the increasingly humid atmosphere and cloudier conditions which have been moving in. It’s true the clouds during the daytime hours limit heating some, but they also make it tougher to cool off at night. The morning low bottomed out at 64° here in Salem. Expect lows to remain above 60° through Thursday.

Another item to watch this week is a small disturbance in the atmosphere expected to drift from south to north directly over us Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. At any point during this timeframe scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms could pop up anywhere west of the Cascades including the coast. The chances are not real high, and some of us will stay dry here in the valley, but keep this in mind as you’re out and about. Storms will generally be much more widespread over and east of the Cascades now through Wednesday night.

Below are images from two different forecasting models showing how isolated the storms and showers are going to be, and how tricky it is as forecaster trying to decide who to forecast which areas get storms and which areas don’t. This first image shows scattered showers running in a line just north and east of Salem extending all the way out to Astoria.

This second one does not have labels, so I added a small blue circle where Salem is located at. Again, only some of us here in the valley will see storms with this model thinking the central Oregon coast will be the place to be.

I share these images from time to time in my forecasts with the purpose of illustrating how tricky it can be to forecast scattered showers/storms. Don’t fixate on the exact locations in the maps above. Just focus on the general idea knowing that storms are a possibility anywhere Tue & Wed, but not everyone is going to be effected by them.

We have a slight chance for some light drizzle Saturday morning, especially northwest of Salem. Otherwise, plan on a warm and dry weekend.

Next week the warm weather continues with highs in 80s to low 90s Monday through Friday as we begin September. Lows should be cooler this time around staying in the upper 50s at least.

Drought update

Many of you have probably noticed we have been dry, and it’s true, we are running below average for precipitation across much of the state of Oregon, and the drought monitor map reveals this well:

We have lacked significant rainfall which is not uncommon for summer here, but what is a little uncommon is we have seen drier than average months since April. The chart below shows monthly precipitation for Salem going back to March which was the last time Salem had a wetter than average month.

It’s nothing to be too worried about, but something I’m keeping an eye on and will update you as we get closer to fall. Typically, fall rains easily erase any drought fears left behind from a dry spring & summer.

Take care and happy Monday!

The forecast through Wednesday is looking extremely hot, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Highs 98 to 102° today – Sunday. So much for a not so hot summer lol… Lows will at least drop into the low to mid 60s each night with temps being cooler the further from urban heat islands you go. Upper 50s are likely in most outlying and rural areas. This is thanks to the longer nights. I checked, and we have lost about two hours of daylight since the summer solstice. I personally really enjoy the long evenings of summer, but regardless of how we feel about the season changing, we can’t stop it, and a benefit of the longer nights is cooler starts to the day – even during a heatwave.

For Monday I’m going with a high of 92° assuming we see some cloud cover cover from dissipating thunderstorms known sometimes as “debris clouds.” If we get significant cloud cover that day, we could top out closer to just 90, but if clouds are minimal, then we will see another day where highs approach 100. Either way, still a very warm airmass.

Tuesday: Highs in the upper 90s to near 100° again.

Wednesday: Highs in the lower 90s.

Thursday: Highs finally return to the 80s.

The Cascades and central OR

Beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday of next week, the Cascades and parts of central Oregon will see afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lightning could spark additional wildfires, and lightning, locally heavy rain, and hail could be cause dangerous conditions for hikers, campers, and anyone outdoors.

No need to cancel outdoor plans in the beautiful outdoors. Storms will be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see action each day, but be aware of it if you have plans in these areas. Simply keep an eye on the forecast each day and if you see clouds building/bubbling up, then that’s a good sign of healthy convection and consequently a good sign to maybe pause your outdoor adventure. Storms will generally move from south to north with this type of weather pattern, but will take on a more northwesterly direction Sunday night and Monday which is why we could see more cloud cover that day.

I’m at the end of the post and I realized I prepared no fun graphics, charts, or colorful images, so I thought I would share this silly photo I took the other day. I drive past this tree on Cordon Road often, and each time I feel like it looks like a monster – a friendly monster of course lol, but I had to pull over and take a pic so I could SAFELY get a better look. Anyway, I leave you with this. Be safe out there, stay hydrated, and watch out for friendly monsters roaming around Cordon Road haha. 😀

The quick version

Details

Overall things worked out, but forecasting what are known as “atmospheric rivers” will always be tricky. Atmospheric rivers were once described to me as a loose firehose wiggling around and spraying in many directions. Trying to predict where it will spray next and for how long are difficult things which forecasters may never truly understand. The storm itself was strong for this time of year and moisture laden**. It just didn’t linger over the valley for a long time.

The next image shows up best if you’re view it on the website versus the email report. It’s a slider tool and you can easily compare what was forecasted versus how much rain we actually received.**