Category: WEATHER ALERTS

The next nine days

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Can you believe it’s almost Friday and the end of October? Time to look ahead at the forecast for this weekend (many of you want to know), plus the forecast for next week, and at the very end I have a fun little weather history tidbit for you.

I’ve combed through the weather models searching and searching and I cannot find a single completely dry 24 hour period after Friday through at least the next ten days! Eventually we’ll see dry weather again, it always comes back, but it’s very clear we are entering full on rainy season mode here in western Oregon. We have a lot of rainy, grey, and damp November weather on tap with only very short respites here and there.

Extended forecast

Highlights

Friday: The first half of the evening looks dry . Late evening activities could get rained on. Rain will begin earlier in the evening the further northwest you go. So the Portland metro could see a rainier Halloween evening than Salem. Locations south and east of Salem could easily stay dry well through midnight. If you’re wondering why apps keep on changing their forecasts for this Friday it’s because it just doesn’t get much closer than this. The estimated radar image for 8pm Friday night shows a band of rain just to our northwest. Move that sucker 25 miles closer and we have a very wet evening. See how tricky that is?

Saturday: Wet with rain much of the day.

Sunday: This is it! It could be mostly dry during the daylight hours Sunday, so take advantage of it! 🙂

Mon – Tue: Wet at times, but nothing real wild.

Wednesday: This storm looks a little more impactful with heavier rain likely, and possibly some gusty winds.

Thursday & Friday: It seems like another pretty wet storm system will move in at some point during these two days bringing steady rain and possibly more gusty winds.

Impacts

None of the storms this coming week appear capable of producing really strong winds. Instead plan on typical run of the mill 30 to 40mph gusts. Should this change, then I would of course do my very best to inform you. Right now the biggest issue weather will have on your day to day life (other than getting soaking wet outside) is the likelihood of clogged/backed up drains creating ponding on roadways and in some parking lots. As far as mountain snow goes, well I don’t see very much at all over the next 8 days. These storms will be on the mild side. This means wet and rainy Cascade passes.

Some fun weather facts for you all. I looked back into the history and record books, and I found out that in 1935 it snowed 5 inches officially at the Salem Airport on Halloween making it the earliest snowfall in Salem on record.

As far as the single snowiest day in Salem’s recorded history goes, it appears the record was set in 1937 when 25 inches fell between January 31st and February 1st. There are several documents (journals, weather reports etc.) indicating that up to 33+ inches fell in parts of south Salem in just those two days alone! Check out this photo from downtown Salem after the storm. Keep in mind this all happened after 6 to 12 inches of snow had already fallen during the week prior.

And this next photo was taken on State Street in downtown Salem after the storm.

What would happen if that took place today?!?!? I suppose every winter brings with it new opportunities for something wild to happen, and since Friday marks the earliest snowfall on record here, I figured it’s time to start keeping an eye out for snow…. Or, we could end up with a snowless winter which happens far more often than big snowstorms around here. :/ Time will tell…

Okay, stay safe out there, remind your kids to be respectful and mindful of people, property, and cars when running around from house to house in search of candy (sounds a little weird when you think about it lol), and of course, have fun! 🙂

The rearview mirror

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

What an exciting and wild weekend of stormy weather we just had! Numerous thunderstorms popped up Saturday up and down the coastline, and even the valley got in on the action too! A strong line of storms dropped heavy rain, brought gusty winds, and put down multiple lightning strikes Saturday afternoon across much of the mid valley region. I’m borrowing this image from Fox 12 Weather (the best Portland weather team), and it shows really well the vast amount of lightning strikes that occurred Saturday.

For the most part, I’m pleased with how the forecast went: winds were widespread with Salem officially recording a 45mph gust, many of us experienced intense downpours, and thunderstorms were frequent along the coast making for a very stormy fall-like weekend. Rainfall totals ended on the lighter side, but I imagine not too many people noticed that… Below is a map with three day rain totals from Friday through early this morning.

We have two more shots at seeing rainfall over the next seven days, and I’ve listed both of them out for you below:

  1. Tuesday night – early Wednesday morning a few hours of steady rainfall during the middle of the night. So unless you’re on night shift or you’re running packages for Amazon in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, you probably won’t even notice this rain event. The daylight hours on Wednesday look dry.
  2. Saturday. This will be a bigger soaking. Rain begins at some point Saturday morning and continues through the duration of the day. No strong winds or wild thunderstorms this go around, just plain ol’ Oregon rain. Probably looking at a solid half inch. High of 62°.

I think many of you will appreciate the timing of our rainfall with the majority of this week’s rain taking place at night – a far cry from the rain these past few days.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will all stay basically dry during the “regular” daytime hours this week. Fog is likely during the mornings of our dry days, especially with all the ground moisture, longer nights, and cool airmass near the surface. So our dry days might not feature as much sunshine as the dry days we saw last week – something to keep in mind. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60°.

The Cascades

Finally, no snow in the Cascade passes this week. The brief rain events we do have on tap are bringing in warmer air, so snow levels will climb well above the passes. Bare and/or wet roads can be expected up there through at least Sunday.

Have an excellent and safe rest of your week! 🙂

Weekend storm update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The rain really came down today at times, especially this afternoon, and the winds also picked up for a couple hours peaking at 32mph around 5pm. Overall, very happy with the forecast thus far. So with one storm down, it’s time for a quick update on the stronger and more dynamic storm number two.

Headlines

  • Very stormy Saturday.
  • Rainy, but with much calmer winds on Sunday.
  • Snowy Cascade passes Sunday through Monday morning.
  • Chance for rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning; otherwise, mostly dry through Thursday.

Details

THE RAIN: Heavy rain early Saturday morning transitions into heavy showers for the rest of the day. These showers will be intense. Rainfall totals tomorrow will most likely exceed what we saw today with some localized areas even topping an inch of rain tomorrow!

THE WIND: Wind gusts here in the valley ranging from 35 – 45mph, and up to 55mph along the coast and up in the Coast Range.

THUNDERSTORMS: Thunderstorms will accompany this incoming storm system The coast and Coast Range will see the most action, but I fully expect a few storms to make their way across the Willamette Valley as well. These storms are “low topped” meaning the threat for lightning is minimal, but localized downpours, stronger wind gusts than what is being forecasted, and even a funnel cloud are all possibilities with these storms.

This estimated radar image does a good job of depicting the general pattern tomorrow. The oranges and reds represent the intense downpours many of us will experience Saturday.

Next opportunity for rain looks to happen either Friday (Halloween) or Saturday of next week, but plenty of time to figure those details out.

Stay safe, and enjoy the wild fall weather!

Stormy weekend

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Headlines

We have a very stormy weekend coming up bringing the strongest winds and heaviest rain totals since last March. I’m not expecting widespread power outages, but these will be our first large storms of the season, and many trees still have their summer foliage which is why we should expect a few power outages this weekend. Definitely a great reminder and great time to make sure you’re as ready as possible for power outages (light sources, non perishable foods, sources of warmth etc.)

Details

Friday & Saturday look really wet and windy at times. This chart shows more details for what to expect each of these two days.

The next image shows estimated rainfall totals now through 11pm Sunday night. Most valley locations will likely end up near two inches give or take a little. The coast and Coast Range should pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain, and even the driest parts of Oregon’s high desert end up with some nice rainfall totals out of this series of storms.

Sunday: Showers on and off through the day. Probably looking at another quarter to third of an inch of rain. Some showers will be rather heavy.

Monday: A brief dry break. Partly cloudy, probably some patching morning fog. High of 55°.

Tuesday: Rain returns. Rain at times through much of the day. High of 54°.

The Coast

Classic stormy weather out along the coast. Large waves, heavy rain, and high winds.

  • 35 – 45mph gusts on Friday.
  • 45 – 55mph gusts on Saturday.

Waves will be big out there, especially Saturday. This chart shows maximum wave height in feet. Seems to be pretty exciting wave watching conditions (from a safe distance of course) with maybe a 40 footer mixed in there at times Saturday afternoon!!

The Cascades

Mountain snow will be an issue Saturday evening through Monday morning. Right now it seems like 10 to 15 inches can be expected near the tops of the Cascade passes and at the ski resorts all the way up and down the Cascade Range as depicted in this map below.

Happy conferences for everyone who is engaged with those today, enjoy the nice dry weather if possible, and have a great rest of the week!

Short update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A real short update tonight. I’ll do my best to have a few more details later this week, but for now, just the basics.

  • Slight chance of a sprinkle Wednesday evening; otherwise, mostly dry through Thursday night.
  • Rainy and windy at times both Friday & Saturday.
  • Showers Sunday with breezy winds still possible.
  • Showers continue Monday.

Details

The two main changes from my previous forecast is to add a small chance of sprinkles Wednesday evening, and to make Thursday completely dry. Initially, it appeared as though it might rain Thursday, but now the rain looks to hold off until Friday. And speaking of Friday, it looks wet! We have a shot at seeing up to an inch of rain or more that day which is something we haven’t seen since March 15th from last spring.

Periods of rain continue Saturday – Monday. This estimated rainfall map tends to overdo totals just a little, but it gives us a good idea. Between now and Monday morning the vast majority of us will have picked up the better part of 2 inches of rainfall with more in the mountains. Quite the fall soaking for sure!!

Winds will be gusty too during these wet days. At the moment I’m thinking wind gusts of 30 to 35mph Friday and again Saturday night or Sunday, but will be watching to see if that changes. I hope to have more details in a fresh post Wednesday plus a better look into next week’s weather!

In the meantime, enjoy the sunshine and highs in the 60s while they last. 🙂

The stages of fall

On By bryanweatherIn 2025/2026, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Headlines

  • Dry and partly sunny through Saturday evening.
  • Rain arrives Saturday night.
  • Showers, downpours, sunbreaks, and breezy winds Sunday.
  • Dry Mon – Wed. Highs 62 – 65°.
  • Much stormier weather arrives Thursday and will last through next weekend and beyond.

Details

Fall around here seems to have two stages.  The first stage is what we’ve been experiencing for over a month now: brief periods of rainy weather and showers followed by several days of nice sunny weather. As you know, that’s exactly what has taken place since mid September. In fact, dry days have just barely doubled the amount of rainy days since mid September – a pretty great mix if you ask me! 🙂

The second stage of fall takes place when those numbers switch with wet, soggy, and grey days dominating our region. Typically, this takes place during the second half of October or early November, and this year it appears to be right on schedule.

I’ve shared a few of those ensemble charts I enjoy using from time to time. The two charts we have today are showing 24 hour rainfall totals, and max wind gust speeds in mph for Salem. More than 4 or 5 days out it’s best to focus on general trends and large scale patterns, and not so much on the details yet… Remember, time goes from left to right and each horizontal line is a possible outcome.

Often what will happen is the extreme solutions shown by individual members (horizontal lines) will fade as time gets closer; however, if we continue to see an increasing amount of members showing a certain outcome then we do want to pay attention to that possible outcome as consensus grows.

When viewing both those charts I saw two clear messages.  The first one is that stage two is coming for western Oregon next week.  Regular rainy weather with frequent storms will dominate our weather beginning next Thursday, and it looks to stay active for as far as the eye can see. I drew a nice line right around Thursday morning to illustrate the solid agreement rain will begin on that day. Notice how wet it gets in the days following as highlighted by the arrows. The heaviest rain totals are indicated by yellow, orange, and red coloring.

The second thing I notice is these storms have the potential to be quite active/strong. In addition to the heavy rain potential, there is also a potential for very strong winds. The max wind speed chart has it’s share of impressive wind gusts as well with orange, red, and brown shadings representing much stronger than usual wind speeds. Here it is again. Remember to click on it for a closer look.

The weather models definitely have my attention, and I’ll be keeping an eye out for any strong frontal systems, “atmospheric rivers”, or powerful low pressure systems that might be heading our direction. Regardless, stay safe out there and enjoy what could be the last of the 60s for the season next week, because stormy weather is quickly approaching!

Colder, but dry

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The wind today has been gusty! Wind gusts pushing 35mph here in the Salem area, and higher near Portland. The pattern we are in is actually the same type of pattern that would give us arctic air had it taken place in say December, but instead it’s just a little chilly. Temperatures as of 4pm under a full sky of sunshine are barely reaching the low 60s, and take a look at those 40s and 50s east of the Cascades. Brrrrrrrrrrr!!

For those of us who, for whatever reason, hold off as long as possible to turn on the furnace each year, I believe this past weekend was your time to finally crack. A lack of solar radiation due to thick cloud cover, cooler high temperatures, and a much wetter/damp airmass all combined to give us the coldest weather of the season thus far yesterday. Our high on Sunday was only 56° with periods of rain before we plunged into the lower 40s last night. It gets even colder though. Come Tuesday & Wednesday mornings, our lows dip into the mid 30s across for the first time in over 5 months! Frost will be possible, especially in the more outlying areas. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 60s under full sunshine.

More clouds around Thursday and Friday, and a very slight chance for a few sprinkles on Friday.

Dry Saturday with increasing clouds. Rain moves in Saturday night and next Sunday will be a wet day with rain and showers.

The Cascades

It looks like winter on the ski webcams today. Check out Hoodoo from earlier!

It looks like a solid 4 to 8 inches fell at Hoodoo (depending on elevation), and even more fell at Timberline over on Hood.

The rest of the week looks dry up on the mountains, breezy at times, but for the most part plenty of sunshine. Only exception would be maybe a few sprinkles Friday. Next chance for mountain snow will come on Sunday.

Take care, stay safe, and enjoy the beautiful sunshine!!