We have a fairly decent shot at seeing thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours here in the mid valley.  Between now and roughly 4pm partly to mostly cloudy skies & increasingly mild temps will rule the day.  The warmer we get today the better chance we have at seeing thunderstorms later on this afternoon/evening.  You can keep track of  how warm our temps are getting right here on this handy dandy link provided by Fox 12’s Mark Nelson. Next I have an image of the simulated radar good for 4pm local time.  The oranges and reds indicate storms right over the valley.

As is typically the case around here, not everyone will see an actual thunderstorm; however, chances are high you will at least get some heavier rain and possibly gusty winds.  Best guess at timing of storms is 3 to 5pm.

In the meantime enjoy the dry weather!

First off a quick little demonstration on how a little bit of elevation can make a huge difference in weather conditions. This first pic is from roughly 200′ in elevation.  The next pic is my neighborhood at 475′ in elevation.  Both pics were taken Monday morning.

 

Moral of this story is that snowfall totals can vary quite a lot even right here in Salem/Keizer which is just another reason why predicting snowfall is such a pain.

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Moving on, I’m tracking another snow event heading our way with some factors working against us seeing a bit of snow and some factors working in our favor if you’re rooting for more snow.

One factor working against a lot of snow tonight would be this dry air.  Dry air means precip has a tougher time reaching the ground.  Another factor to consider is this storm has less moisture than the last storm which again equals less snowfall potential. 

Working in our favor for a bit of snow are the cold temps.  Across the region we are a solid 3 – 6 degrees colder than this exact time Sunday.  This means it will not take long at all for snow to begin sticking this go around.  The second factor working in our favor for more snow is the trend.  They say “the trend is your friend,” and the trend on the weather models today has been increasing the precip tonight.  This of course means the opportunity exists for us to exceed current snow forecasts including my own.

With all that said I expect many of us will receive somewhere between 1 & 3 inches of snow.  Sadly, there’s almost always a “loser” when it comes to snowfall in these parts, and I imagine some of you will see less than an inch.  Either way be prepared for area roads tomorrow morning to be icy, slushy, and or snowy.  It’s late February though and the roads should be just wet by mid to late morning thanks to the increasing sun angle and longer days.

I should have an updated look ahead and a quick update on tonight’s storm later this evening.

Be safe