Good morning! It’s been a truly historic summer in regards to heat and record high temps. I’ll have a final look back at our incredibly hot summer another time. For now I’m back in the forecasting saddle and it feels great to be back! Forecasting is a huge passion of mine; however, for the past 6 weeks I’ve been absolutely swamped with my new teaching job.  In fact it’s been a long time since you’ve heard from me as summer is already a slow time of year regarding the weather not to mention the many hikes and little trips I took over summer in addition to all the work I’ve had.

So yes, I’m back and it’s good to be returning to the swing of things. Looking ahead it’s very clear to me that summer is over. Sure, we will still have plenty of 70 degree days and maybe even a few more 80 degree days, but have you noticed the chillier nighttime lows? The heat of the day doesn’t last real long this time of year. Speaking of cool nighttime lows, the coolest temps we have seen since early June are occurring this morning with lots of low to mid 40s. Salem was at 45° as of AM. In fact check out all of the chilly temps this morning across the region!

Here’s a look at the next 7 days with highlights and details below.

Highlights

I’m confident rain should move in after “dinner time” Friday night meaning your Friday plans should be good to go through at least 7 or 8PM – maybe even later.

This map shows Salem picking up .8″ of rain in only 6 hours early Saturday morning with more as we go through the remainder of the day.

Indeed it’s going to be quite the soaker Friday night & Saturday morning with close to an inch of rain falling! Saturday afternoon will feature a more typical shower/sunbreak pattern – maybe a rumble of thunder.

Showers increase on Sunday. Again, slight chance for a rumble of thunder or even a funnel cloud.

The rain shuts off abruptly Sunday night making for a dry Monday (maybe some morning fog), and then Tue will be sunny and mild.

Forecasting confidence goes down on Wed as it looks like we will be on the edge of a weak system. For now plan on a mostly cloudy day with a light shower or two – nothing big.

Your dry days for getting things done outside are today, Friday, and again next Mon & Tue.

That’s all I have for now. Feels great making a forecast like this again! We have another La Nina winter in store which means it’s likely going to be a busy year with plenty of storms and exciting weather events, and I plan on being the guy you can count on to keep you informed and in the know 😉 🙂

Take care and I hope you all are staying healthy and safe!

It’s been a long time since I gave an update. Mostly because number one, it’s summertime and our weather has been virtually the same every single day this month with very few variations. Basically we have been in the 80s or 90s the entire month with a few “cloudier” days, but still dry -nothing crazy or life altering. The other reason is that like many of you I do my best to squeeze in some fun outdoor activities this time of year thanks to the dry weather which means less time to post.

This is all changing today as a fetch of monsoon moisture has moved in bringing muggier weather. This airmass is also bringing a chance for a few showers and even some thunderstorms now through tonight, and then again Saturday night and into early Sunday morning.

We have an additional shot at some widespread rainfall later next week, especially as we head towards Friday and Saturday.

Looks like things are picking up again. I’ll have a second update later this weekend with a full extended forecast and more details on our additional rain chances.

For now just keep in mind that a few showers and even a thunderstorm or two is definitely likely now through Sunday morning. Storms are even more likely over the Cascades and through central Oregon.

A quick update for you. I’ll kick off by letting you know that yesterday Salem set a new record for the hottest temp ever recorded here with a high of 113°!!!! Today is running just as hot. Check out the hot temperatures as of 10AM across the PNW.

99° and it’s not even lunchtime yet…. That is just crazy! Fortunately there’s cooler air to our south with Roseburg sitting at a “cool” 85° indicating that relief is on the way. Cooler air will continue to push up from the southwest this afternoon.

Highlights

Number one: We have several more hours of intense heat to endure before we cool off dramatically. Our high temp today should occur closer to 2PM. It’s at that time when the cooler ocean air will finally push its way into the valley.

Number two: Gusty winds of 30 to almost 40mph will usher in fresh marine air this afternoon ending our hellish nightmare. Clouds may build with this push of cool air, but at this time I’m not expecting any showers… Tonight we should see lows dip to the mid 60s!

Number three: The rest of the week is still going to be hot. It just won’t be as hot with highs roughly 88 – 94° and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Hang in there a little bit longer. Relief is coming!

The weather is absolutely wicked right now. Yesterday we set the record for the hottest temp ever seen here in Salem for the month of June with a high temp of 105°. Today we are seeing the hottest weather we have ever had here and it feels like it too. Check out our 4PM temps:

112°!!!!! What else can I say? It’s way too hot out there. 112 degrees is 4 degrees hotter than Salem’s all time hottest temp ever recorded, so we are smashing records today. Notice the central Oregon coast. It’s a nice 72 at Newport right now…

The only good news is Salem will “cool off” a little quicker than the Portland area will on Monday. We may see our high temp tomorrow closer to 1 or 2PM before cooling down some whereas today our high temp will likely come after 5PM.

Tue – next Sun: Highs 90 to 95 which is still really hot and way above normal, but definitely not as extreme as what we are seeing now. Lows should also dip close to and even below 60° after Tuesday making it easier to cool off at night.

The forecast is still on track this afternoon. Basically we have “out of this world” record heat on the way through Monday with more regular Pacific Northwest heat continuing afterwards.

Here’s my latest 7 day forecast

A few thoughts for you all

1.) As mentioned in my previous forecast I can’t emphasize enough just how hot it’s going to be. It’s already hot out there as we are topping 90° right now, but it’s about to get even hotter. We could be looking at several hours of 100+ degree weather Sat, Sun, and Mon which would be a drastic difference from our typical heat waves were it takes all day to reach 100°. This is going to be rough. I’m telling you now in case you haven’t heard it enough elsewhere lol… The nighttime lows are also going to be much much warmer than normal making it tough to cool off houses and buildings at night. Please check up on and keep in mind those who do not have AC.

2.) I got to say it feels weird forecasting a high temperature of 111 as it would be hotter than anything we have ever seen here since records began in Salem over 120 years ago. Salem’s all time high temp is 108° recorded back in August 1981, and it blows my mind to think we could top that and maybe even by several degrees…

3.) The other thing to note is Salem may not be quite as hot as Portland for a few reasons. The biggest reason is there may be a push of slightly “cooler” marine air coming up from the south (yes, the south lol) Monday afternoon which should keep us several degrees cooler than Portland that day. Of course this only means we may be a few degrees over 100 whereas Portland could easily top 110 again that day too. Portland also has a more intense urban heat island effect than Salem keeping their temps a little bit warmer specifically in scenarios like this.

4.) There’s no sign whatsoever of below normal or even normal weather coming up. Basically nothing but hot weather for the next 10 plus days at least.

5.) Another reminder to be prepared should something unexpected happen like the power going out. If you’re able to, having a reasonable amount of supplies on hand is a prudent course of action.

6.) Conserve energy when possible to help ease the stress on the power grid.

7.) Lastly, please stay cool, safe and stay patient with each other. Heat has a way of making us short tempered and cranky. Try hard to be extra patient with those around you this week as it’s going to be brutal for everyone.

A quick update regarding our wet weather. Currently, I hope you are enjoying the nice dry break we are seeing right now. In fact, we should have several more hours of dry, increasingly humid, and mild conditions with temps reaching the 70s this afternoon; however, a very moist “slug” of moisture is posed to move in during the later evening hours. Right now I’m thinking rain moves in after 6PM. Rain continues Saturday night through most of Sunday. Expect Sunday to be very wet. The rain tonight and tomorrow is really going to favor the coast, Coast Range, and the western half of the Willamette Valley. This rainfall map (through Monday evening) shows this well.

You can also see tonight’s storm system moving towards us on satellite by using the link below:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=conus&x=6616&y=3047.3333740234375&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

• We should see a few more breaks in the rain on Monday with showers increasing late in the day along with an elevated chance for thunderstorms over the Cascades.

• Sunbreaks, PM showers, and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening time frame contains our best bet at seeing thunderstorms around here. Thunderstorms will be more likely the further north you go, but Salem should still at least see some nice downpours this day. We dry out quickly Tuesday evening after roughly 6PM. All this rain is going to add up. This map shows the expected rainfall through Tuesday night. This is on top of the nice rainfall we saw Friday!

• After the rain we dry up on Wed with AM clouds & PM sun. Highs in the upper 70s.

• Thu – next weekend will be very summer like as highs climb into the 80s with lots of sunshine!

Have a great weekend and stay safe!

First off I have to say the showers this week have underperformed just a little. Salem has officially picked up a mere 0.03″ of rain since this cooler & “wetter” weather began back on Saturday.

The main “rain event” from the start has been and still is looking to be Friday through next Tuesday as several waves of moisture ride up into western Oregon. Trying to pinpoint exactly when these waves of moisture will show up is proving to be more difficult than usual due to the trajectory/path of this storm system. The main thing to keep in mind is we will have several rounds of steady rainfall Sat through Tue with breaks of dry weather mixed in between. There will also be a chance for thunder Sun – Tue. Below is the forecasted total precipitation through Monday night from both of the major weather models.

It appears we are still on track to pick up at least an inch to maybe even over an inch and a half of rain in the coming days which would be great news for our drought!

A few quick highlights

1.) Thursday: Unfortunately, this day has gone from being “totally dry” to “mostly dry with a slight chance of a sprinkle.” Nothing too heavy, but just enough to prevent it from being totally dry.

2.) Friday’s going to be wet with periods of rain. More rain the further north you go.

3.) Sat – Tue: Humid, mild, and fairly wet with periods of rain and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.

In related news it looks like the radar is up and running a day early! You can track the showers out there with this link.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RTX-N0Q-1-24

Happy “Hump Day!” and enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts. I imagine summer weather will return in no time…