Category: WEATHER ALERTS

Our Extremely warm fall

On By bryanweatherIn 2022, 2022//2023, Extra!!, Monthly reports, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I admit I’m stating the obvious when I tell you that our fall season so far has been both extremely warm and dry; however, the part which sticks out the most is the warmth. We have been in record setting territory, but does this mean we might have a warm and mild fall/winter season too, or is there any correlation at all? We’ll take a look in this post. If you’re hoping for a forecast I can tell you that basically it’s looking dry for at least the next 7 or 8 days, so nothing new or exciting, and sadly nothing to really help put out the fires which continue to burn across the PNW.

This past September ended up 3 degrees above normal with only .29″ of rain (just 20% of normal) making for an extremely dry month! In addition to that, September 2022 also recorded seventeen 80+ degree days making the past month feel like an extension of summer. Look at how warm the western half of the country was during September.

Much of the western U.S. was 3 to 5° for the month.

October has also started out extremely warm with 6 out of the first 10 days reaching the 80 degree mark vaulting Salem to 6 degrees above normal for the month! Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:

The entire state of Oregon and Washington are currently running 6 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for October.

What’s really bizarre though is we have seen years in the past with extremely warm and dry Septembers and even Octobers during La Nina conditions only to flip to stormy weather. Currently we are experiencing (for a third year in a row) La Nina conditions – something to keep in mind.

Let’s look at September 1974. It was a La Nina year and a mere .28″ of rainfall for the entire month which is almost identical to the amount we saw this September. September 1974 was also extremely warm with a whopping 21 days above 80 and 11 days at/above 90°!

So what happened in 1974 after such a warm and dry early fall? Well over 14 inches of rain fell in November and December alone coupled with tons of mountain snow. Let’s look at a few more examples.

Exactly one year later in 1975 (La Nina year), Salem recorded its driest September on record. Not a single drop of rain fell the entire month. It was also very warm with eighteen 80+ degree days. The second half of October through December brought over 16 inches of rain though, and even some pre Christmas snowfall.

How about one more example? September 1998 was very dry as well with only 0.68″ of precip and plenty of mild days to boot. The following November and December dumped 20 inches of rain here in Salem resulting in widespread flooding. Worth noting that this was also a La Nina winter…

Bottom line is a warm and dry first half of fall can easily switch to a very wet, cool, and stormy second half. To be honest, that’s exactly what I expect will happen this year within the next 2 weeks. Watch for updates as the rainy season draws near and enjoy the warm and dry weather while it lasts, because it won’t last for much longer. Winter and the rainy season is coming, it’s just taking it’s sweet sweet time to arrive, but remember this post and know that you’ve been warned. It is coming…. It won’t be long before everything is all soggy, puddles everywhere, the rivers flowing high, and we will start wishing for sun again.

Out of the blue

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

After a loooong long stretch of not posting, I’m back with a helpful update for you all.

I’ve seen a number of various forecasts for the coming days all disagreeing on whether or not it is going to rain here the next several days, and I figured it was time to leap back into action. I have all the details below.

Basically we are on the northern edge of very moist storm which is aimed for California. This is GREAT news for bringing the wildfires under control plus a good soaking rain like this should help prevent any new late season fires from starting. This satellite image from around 1:30PM does a good job of showing the storm’s location as it prepares to hit California.

Highlights

A round of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms roll into our region later this evening through the early morning hours of Sunday from the south/southeast – a fairly unusual pattern for western Oregon.

Monday: Mild and dry with highs in the low 80s.

Tuesday: Mainly dry here in Salem with the exception being locations just south of us roughly from Albany and Corvallis southward. Showers are much more likely down there.

Wed & Thu: Showers both days with highs in the low 70s.

Fri: Back to regular dry and mostly sunny early fall weather! 🙂

The rain coming up from the south should also help significantly with Oregon’s major fires too including the Cedar Creek fire. I fully expect much better news on the fire front come mid week.

Take care and stay tuned for more updates! 😉

Thunderstorms

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We have had some incredibly hot weather this summer, and I plan on highlighting our extremely HOT weather in an end of summer post at a later date. For the moment I wish to highlight our thunderstorm potential here west of the Cascades.

Basically now through Wednesday morning we have a chance for showers and thunderstorms with some of the storms having the potential to be quite strong. This goes for Salem, the entire Willamette Valley, and the coastal cities too. The storms will not be widespread which makes it extremely tough to forecast who will see action and who won’t. Check out these 3 separate forecast images:

This estimated radar image shows Salem getting hit by the tail end of a hefty shower, but missing out on any large storms.
Salem stays dry while strong thunderstorms roll along the Coast Range in this forecast.
Meanwhile this forecast nails Salem with a powerful thunderstorm right over the center of town.

The main idea is that scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the region between now and Wednesday morning. Regardless of whether or not we see storms here in Salem, Wednesday will end up being fairly cool with highs topping out only around 80 degrees.

We stay in the 80s through the weekend 🙂 before the heat returns again later next week :/

The Cascades and areas east of the mountains will likely see storms too. Depending on rainfall with the storms they can be a blessing or a curse as lightning could fuel more wildfires over there.

Time to see what happens, but don’t be surprised if you get rained on or if you hear thunder.

Keep on enjoying summer and stay safe out there!!

Extended heatwave

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are wrapping up day 2 of what will be one of the longer heatwaves we have seen in a few years. No, not the hottest (that title will likely remain with June 2021 for quite awhile), but it will be a very prolonged heatwave. Yesterday Salem reached a high of 94°, and as of 5PM today, we have reached 100°. Phew! Check out the toasty hot temperatures dominating the Pacific Northwest.

There is relief right along the coastline; otherwise, the rest of the northwest is baking (and will continue to bake) under the hot July sun. The sun below pretty much sums up the extended forecast. There are just a few highlights I wish to share with you before wrapping this post up.

1.) Nights will be unusually warm due to increasing humidity which will make it really tough to cool your house down with just open windows. Lows will bottom out 62 – 65° tonight through Monday morning of next week! Yes, it’s really going to be a long stretch of extremely hot weather!

2.) The length of the heat is my 2nd highlight. Highs anywhere from 96 to 102° are likely through Saturday with lower 90s continuing into early next week.

3.) Hang in there because much cooler weather should be arriving sometime around August 2nd or 3rd.

Stay cool, check up on people who may not have AC, and keep hydrated!!

A few summertime showers and more heat on the way

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We were fortunate to have a completely dry Independence Day with a high temperature of 80 degrees. Today we have seen a few sprinkles and even a couple of showers. At any point between now and Wednesday night we could see a brief shower and maybe a rumble of thunder as these showers move across the region. The cooler air and showers are quite refreshing, but it is summer, and I know we generally root for sun this time of year, so the good news is we have a beautiful weekend coming up. Here’s our 7 day forecast.

Enjoy the cool & damp weather because it’s right back to regular summer weather by Friday.

Our first heat wave

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2021/2022Leave a comment

So far summer 2022 has started off much slower than last summer, but we are finally going to see things change (briefly) as a dome of hot air builds up towards us from the desert southwest. You can see the dome of heat is pretty much right over the Pacific Northwest by Sunday. The map below essentially shows temperature anomalies up around 18 thousand feet in the atmosphere.

Here’s what I’m expecting:

This will be a very typical heatwave with temps spiking close to 100° on Sunday before cooling back down on Tuesday. In fact, most of next week will stay close to average. No sign of any long term hot spells like we’ve seen far too often over the past several summers.

A question I’ve been getting is “will Oregon see a wet summer?” Based off of long range maps, my very best guess is yes, probabilities seem to favor a “wetter” summer. Problem is, this statement can be very misleading and here’s why. Take July for example, on average Salem only sees rainfall between 1 and 2 days each July which means 3 rainy days technically equals a wetter than normal July by that metric. However, if you do the math, this still leaves us with 28 days or 4 full weeks of totally dry weather for the month, so can we really just call 3 rainy days a “wet month?” My answer there is no. If you want to know what a truly wet month looks like then think back to April or last December lol. Hopefully my point is coming across here okay… To help illustrate this further, check out this chart showing total rainfall in Salem for July going back to 1970.

For the record, the average rainfall for July is just under half an inch. 1993 is the last time we saw more than an inch of rain in July. Goes to show just how reliably dry this month is for us. If we do manage to receive half an inch of rain this July, it will make it the wettest one in 11 years!! Similar story for August and the first half of September too. Our summers are reliably dry and that’s what I like about our climate. It’s so awesome having a 2 – 3 month period of warm mostly dry weather for getting outdoors.

Bottom line is, it doesn’t take much rainfall to make it a “wetter than normal summer” around here. Long range charts do show the potential for rain and showers sometime between July 4th and July 7th. Poor timing if it interferes with Independence Day celebrations, but we should quickly return to dry summer like weather afterwards as we head further into the month.

My best guess is this will not be one of those summers where we go nearly 2 months without any rain as we have seen many times in the past decade. I expect showers will pop up a few times through the next couple of months; however, just remember that should we see showers, the warm, sunny, and dry days will still far outnumber the “wet” days.

I will keep a close eye out for any rain chances, but unless we have more big heatwaves or a rare summertime rainstorm (or thunderstorm outbreak) on the horizon, I probably won’t be posting a whole lot as this is our quiet time of year – not to mention it’s the one time of year I get to recharge before heading back into the classroom. 😉 🙂

Have a wonderful weekend.

Be careful and be kind to each other. 🙂

Dry weather outlook

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Despite all the rain being forecasted, and believe me there is a bit of it ahead, we also have a few dry times coming up also. I’ve highlighted those dry times for you as I know they have been few and far between lately.

First up we have Thursday evening. Much of Thursday will be a total washout with moderate to even heavy rain at times, but the rain will shut off quickly right around 4PM give or take an hour leaving us with a fairly nice Thursday evening.

Dry weather should last through Friday morning before more rain moves in.

Saturday will be mostly wet, so overall a “no go” for outdoor stuff that day, but Sunday is showing signs of being dry. I will keep a close eye on how things progress and should have an additional update before we enter the weekend. I will also be watching Monday and Tuesday for the chance of seeing dry weather on those two days as well. These would not be very warm days, but they have the potential to be drier with highs in the low to mid 60s.

The map below illustrates well how much rain we are expecting through Saturday. Looks as though we are set for a solid 1 to 1.5 inches of rain for the mid Willamette Valley and even a bit of rain east of the Cascades again which is good news for their drought conditions.

That map looks like what we would see in fall or winter, not the middle of May. It’s been an extremely soggy April and May, and while it’s true a few dry days will pop up here and there, overall the Pacific Northwest is still locked in a very wet pattern for mid May with no sign of any real warm weather or long stretch of dry weather.

Okay, have a great Thursday!!