Quick post tonight. We have a massive and very powerful storm heading our way. Bottom line it that beginning tonight and lasting through most of Tuesday, we will experience the strongest winds we have seen in years. Gusts 50 to 60mph are likely here in the Willamette Valley and up to 80mph at the coast. Additionally we will see well over 2 inches of rain within the next 24 hours. Flooding is a concern for all areas near small and mid sized creeks and streams. Here’s the estimated rainfall totals through Tuesday evening.

Expect 2 plus inches here in the valley and up to 4 inches along the coast. Expect power outages (possibly widespread) due to the heavy rain and powerful winds. Furthermore, highway and road closures seem like a good bet especially along the coast and in the mountain ranges. Snow levels will be high to begin with resulting in rain up in the Cascades and on the ski resorts.

The rest of the week will feature snow levels 3000 to 4000 feet which means the ski resorts will quickly regain any lost snow.

Some 5 to 6 feet of snow will fall Tuesday afternoon through Saturday with more on the way for the first week of January!

Expect to need chains traveling through the Cascades every day beginning Tuesday afternoon with snow falling each day.

The weather has been rough lately, but we are making it. We avoided lots of power outages with the ice storm thanks to more of the precip falling as sleet (ice pellets) and very little falling as actual freezing rain, plus precip was not all that heavy. Of course it was so dang cold that, as predicted, that the roads were awful Thursday night through Friday night before we thawed out Saturday morning.

Bottom line is make sure you bring in things that could blow around/over and just know that it has been several years since we experienced winds this strong, so be ready for downed trees and power outages. Winds will pick up late tonight. Hang in there and stay safe!!

It’s been a very chilly month with Salem dropping to 22 this past Saturday morning making it the coldest temperature we have seen so far this winter and it’s going to get even colder. Tonight my confidence has dramatically increased for the mid that a fairly significant winter storm will impact the Willamette Valley Thursday – Saturday morning. Here’s the extended forecast and then details below.

Nothing exciting or special for Tuesday. Showers will increase later in the day, but that’s really it.

Wednesday morning an arctic airmass will begin to descend from the north bringing extremely cold weather. We will actually be right on the edge of this arctic airmass; however, its’ so cold that even a glancing blow will drop temperatures considerably. Slight chance of a snow shower this day, but odds favor the snow would not stick here in town.

Plan on Thursday and Friday (maybe Saturday too) having awful weather and horrible travel conditions with widespread freezing rain here in Salem, and snow and ice in the Portland metro and gorge. The combination of extremely cold temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere and the moist pacific storm poised to move in Thursday and Friday is going to cause a big wintry mess. Reference this graphic to see why freezing rain is possible even though temperatures will only be in the 20s. It’s not about how cold it is at the surface as much as what is going on further up in the atmosphere.

Thursday: Frigid arctic air continues to pour in all day long while a storm approaches from the west. At some point during the day a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will begin before quickly changing to just freezing rain. Here at the surface icy winds from the gorge will keep us in the 20s which means roads will also freeze up. Best guess would be precip starts during the afternoon hours.

Freezing rain will continue on and off through Friday night before Salem finally moderates above freezing early Saturday morning. This is the plan at least.

Things still up in the air

1.) How cold do we actually get before the storm hits? The colder it is the longer it will take to “warm up.”

2.) How much moisture falls while we are below freezing? Right now I’m going with somewhere around half an inch of freezing rain which while is far less than the Feb ’21 storm, but is still enough to bring down power lines and tree limbs. Closer to an inch is possible near Portland.

NEED TO KNOW POINTS

1.) Be prepared for power outages to last through Christmas day or beyond. I know this sucks, but half an inch of ice to an inch of ice is expected to accumulate between Albany and Portland with the gorge having even more. This storm will cause a lot of outages and work crews will only be able to work so fast.

2.) PLAN ON I-84 THROUGH THE GORGE CLOSING THESE DAYS. In fact plan on a number of road closures Thursday through Saturday morning all across our region.

3.) Honestly this is why it’s good to have supplies at home as stores will be running low on things for a few days. Just keep that in mind and be gentle and kind when out and about this week. I imagine stores will be busier than usual thanks to Christmas shoppers and people preparing for the storm.

4.) A warmup should take place on Saturday, but ugh….. This is honestly the part that has me the most worried. There is no real good push of onshore wind expected to help wipe out the cold air. What will happen is eventually the inversion should break and we warm up from above. *Refer to graphic above showing freezing rain setup. If the cold air is stubborn and slower to leave then we could have issues Saturday too, but for the moment I’m planning on Saturday being okay here in Salem.

Let’s not even worry about possible flooding after the ice storm, but keep it in the back of your mind that the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is looking very stormy.

Phew!! I plan to update frequently this week. Stay tuned and stay safe and healthy out there!

First things first, a few pics from the graupel and snow showers we had Thursday haha. I know that’s not what you’re on here for, but they are fun pics and they help me document our weather events. 🙂 Here’s a pic of snow sticking right along the ocean, and the second picture shows snow covering surfaces in Lincoln City at the Inn at the Spanish Head.

Okay, time for the forecast. It’s trickier than our usual snow forecasts and well, our usual are already pretty tricky lol… We have cool air in place with more moving in through the gorge tonight. Next there is a system spinning off the coast of northern California. I’ve pointed out the main energy band which will eventually swing up our way. This band of precip will bring rain and snow to the northern Willamette Valley, but more on that below.

This next image illustrates just how difficult the snow prediction is with this storm. Notice how it shows snow falling west of Salem in cities like Independence, Monmouth, and Dallas while rain falls east of Salem in locations like Stayton and Sublimity. This of course puts Salem right on the line. Meanwhile a band of snow stretches across the Portland metro area, so you can see why this is so tricky. This makes the snow forecast from last Christmas look so easy lol…

The next two things to consider with this storm are the temperatures, and the exact location of where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Temps are marginal with this storm, and in order to get snow down to the valley floor Sunday we are going to need help from steady moderate to heavy precip. Steady precip allows for the atmosphere to cool more than it might typically do through a process known as “evaporative cooling.” Evaporative cooling is what lead to our “surprise” snow event here in Salem back in January 2021. Often times temps can drop from the upper 30s down to as low as 31 or 32 degrees within an hour or two. A similar thing occurred Thursday when we saw our heavy graupel and snow shower.

What you need to know

A rain/snow mix will likely start during the early morning hours (6 to 9AM). Depending on how heavy the precip is, it could turn to snow fairly quickly or even start out as snow. This scenario really favors the western Willamette Valley as well as locations north closer to the gorge; however, anyone in the valley could end up with some snow. This will be an extremely close call (again, reference the image above), but it’s time to make a guess, so right now plan on just a little bit of snow falling across the region. Just don’t be surprised if the snow is either short lived, and or ends up staying as a very cold rain or wet snow mix that doesn’t actually stick.

Snow will fall across the Cascades passes as well as through the gorge, so plan on snow covered highways in those regions.

Phew! Time to just see what happens… One of these days I’m hoping we will actually see a decently easy snow forecast, but this is not it. Happy Sunday!!