Category: WEATHER ALERTS

More interesting weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

A fresh update for you all with a look at a few chances for thunderstorms, a quick recap of how Hurricane Hilary affected Oregon, and of course an extended forecast. Let’s start with Hurricane Hilary.

As mentioned in the previous update, the remnants of the hurricane were forecasted to move through eastern Oregon, and sure enough they did. Check out the 3 day rainfall totals.

Some of the driest parts of the state picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain. A few spots up in the Wallowas recorded upwards of 3 inches! That’s a good soaking for those areas. No big wildfire threats over there for the time being. Meanwhile, the Cascades, Coast Range, and the valleys of western Oregon remain dry with active fires still burning.

Moving onto the forecast, it’s looking more interesting as we could have our best chance for thunderstorms of the entire summer this Thursday night and Friday. We could see a rare nocturnal thunderstorm event thanks to an upper level low pulling monsoonal moisture from the south. Below are three images showing the position of this upper level low. These charts are showing wind direction and temperature anomalies for this time of year for about 13,000 feet up in the atmosphere.

Notice where I added the “L” near the center of this upper level low off of our coast, and notice how it just sits there day after day after day. On the days when it is further offshore we will see temperatures soar into the low 90s, but when it gets closer we start seeing chances for storms and or just plain old showers and cooler temperatures. Extremely tricky to forecast when it’s just meandering carelessly out there, but I will do my very best. Reminds me of some of my students who sort of just meander around the hall until they eventually stumble into class…. 😉

Extended forecast

Thu: Sunny and very warm.

Thursday night – Friday morning: Thunderstorms are possible anywhere from the coast to the Cascades and everywhere in between. Like usual no particular location is guaranteed a storm, and some of us will see nothing, but others of you will luck out and see a good light show Thursday night. 🙂

Friday afternoon/evening: Should dry out nicely. This is of course assuming we even get rain Thursday night. 😉

Sat & Sun: Very warm, mostly sunny, and dry days. Thunderstorms up in the Cascades each afternoon/evening.

Mon – Wed: The same upper level low which will bring us storms this week will finally move in at some point during this time frame. Depending on its trajectory, we could see regular showers, some light drizzle, or more thunderstorms. Regardless, these few days will be noticeably cooler and cloudier with increased chances for rain.

I’ll do my best to keep you all updated on any changes. I’ve definitely enjoyed posting a little more regularly as of late, and I hope to continue. Stay cool, safe, and healthy out there!! 🙂

Quick forecast update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

First, the cooler nights and more reasonable daytime highs have been extremely nice after the intense heatwave we just experienced.

Second, it has become clear we will now stay dry through the next several days. In the previous update I mentioned Salem had a chance for a couple showers Sunday and Monday. Well that chance has shifted to our east. In fact, eastern Oregon is expected to get soaked in the coming days as the leftovers of Hurricane Hilary move through that particular region. Here’s the forecasted track of the storm.

I should emphasize eastern Oregon will only be experiencing remnants of the hurricane. Rain and a few thunderstorms will be the primary effects felt in Oregon. So, don’t buy into any hype you see stating how a hurricane is going to hit Oregon.


This map of the estimated rainfall totals through Wednesday does a good job of showing the soaking rain the eastern parts of the state are expected to receive. It’s definitely odd to see cities like Ontario or Baker City getting more rain than locations on the coast.

Okay, enough hurricane talk lol. On to our forecast.

Highlights

Today and Sunday: Highs 91 to 95, but lows should dip down close to 55. Smoky skies will return, especially Saturday evening through Sunday.

Mon – Wed: Highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 50s. Excellent late summer weather in my humble opinion with partly cloudy skies and some light breezes.

For now there is no rain in sight meaning we stay high and dry here in the Willamette Valley until further notice.

Stay safe, and enjoy the warm weather.

Oppressive heat

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The heat is on, and we still have a few more days of intense heat to go. The pic below showcases the extremely hot high temperatures cities from around the northwest saw Monday.

The next 7 days

Highlights

1.) Brutal heat continues for a few more days. The yucky smoky/hazy skies will also stick with us for much of the week. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will struggle to even reach 70°.

2.) The heat lets up a little bit on Thursday with highs in the mid 90s – which is still extremely hot. Friday will be a bit closer to normal summertime weather with highs in the upper 80s.

3.) Saturday should be quite a bit cooler with partly cloudy skies.

4.) Sun & Mon: We might have a shot at some actual rain! Yes, showers are possible for Sunday and Monday. I still have those days highlighted yellow due to a higher level of uncertainty, but as of right now, I’m forecasting at least the chance for showers those two days.

There you have it. Do the best you can to stay cool and safe!

Extreme heat

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I hope you all have enjoyed the nice weather we have had recently, because it’s about to get really, really hot. The forecast is pretty straight forward. Basically we have a very intense heat wave coming up which will last for several days. The nights will also be quite warm. Here’s what I’m thinking for the next 7 days:

Highlights

1.) While it will be really hot here in the valley, the coast will stay relatively mild through most of this event. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest days out along the coastline.

2.) There is a strong signal on the weather models indicating we cool down significantly Saturday of next week. This means we have an end in sight for the hot weather.

Enjoy the best you, and stay safe and cool.

An early peek at fall and winter

On By bryanweatherIn 2023/2024, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTS2 Comments

If you are here for the forecast, then I have it right here first. Basically we should have highs 90 to 95° each day through Monday the 7th before cooling back down closer to average with highs in the lower 80s next Tuesday and Wednesday. No sign of rain for now…

Up in the Cascades we do have a shot of seeing thunderstorms during the later PM hours each day Friday through Sunday. I will keep a close eye on this threat as it will be happening over the weekend. For now I’m thinking the storms stay close to the crest of the Cascades and the Cascade peaks, they should stay east of Detroit Lake, Green Peter, and the other major reservoirs. The valley and coast should stay nice and dry. That’s it for the forecast.

Okay, so it’s only the second day of August, and there is plenty of hot summer still to go; however, I thought it would be interesting to take a peek at our up coming fall and winter season. The waters off the western coast of South America near the equator have switched from cooler than normal to warmer than normal over the past 6 months. The warmer than normal waters give us what we call an El Nino pattern.

Believe it or not, the sea surface temperatures thousands of miles away really do have an effect on our weather, and I’ll go through what those impacts could look like. Just keep in mind anytime I talk about an upcoming winter season I’m providing more of an “educated guess” than an actual forecast. Basically, I look at previous years which had similar El Nino conditions, and I go from there.

So what do the odds favor for the coming fall and winter? Well, there are 5 things which really stand out to me as being more likely during this up coming El Nino winter.

1.) Higher chances for late summer/early fall rains. Do you remember last fall how we scorched during the month of September and even the first two weeks of October? I sure remember. I remember cooking in my classroom at school. The odds of something similar happening again on a similar scale this year are smaller. We could very likely still see late season heat, but odds favor that such heat would not last for weeks on end through the fall like it did last year.

2.) El Nino winters tend to give Salem near average precipitation, but in a more “boom or bust” type fashion. El Nino winters often times produce significant rainfall over short periods of time leading to some flooding. You may recall me saying in the past that La Nina winters are the ones which give us our largest floods, and that is still true. The most important difference between many of our El Nino floods and La Nina floods is the snowpack in the mountains. The mountain snowpack during a La Nina winter tends to be pretty healthy (above normal), so when heavy rains arrive, there is usually plenty of snow to melt which adds to the flooding. El Nino winters tend to have a smaller snowpack due to warmer than usual temperatures. This minimizes the flooding usually just enough to prevent major widespread flooding. Clear as mud right?? 😉 🙂 Bottom line: expect some significant rainstorms this fall and winter and some flooding issues, but hopefully any major flooding can be avoided.

3.) Warmer overall. I expect this winter to end up being on the mild side. A cold El Nino around these parts has happened before, but is very, very rare. Again, for comparison, last winter was colder than normal when all the months were accounted for. We could easily have a cold arctic blast this winter, but in the end, I imagine we would still end up milder than average.

4.) Most El Nino winters end up producing a close to normal snowpack in the mountains, but because these winters tend to be milder, the snowpack rarely exceeds average by any significant amount. The bad news is that due to the warmer rain events, the snowpack does not typically stay “in tact” throughout the entire winter as well as it does during a La Nina. I’ve seen a healthy snowpack disappear quickly during an El Nino winter, before slowly building back up weeks later. Plan on a decent ski season, but probably not top tier.

5.) Speaking of snow, snow in the Willamette Valley is a huge wildcard during El Nino. During a La Nina winter, snow in Salem is a basically a guarantee as just about every La Nina produces at least some measurable snowfall here in Salem. The same cannot be said about El Nino though. We are closer to 50/50 when it comes to snow during an El Nino winter, so we will see what happens.

Again, these are all just guesses and trends I see based off of what took place in previous El Nino winters of similar strength to the one we are expected to see. It’s always exciting to see what actually unfolds, and of course it’s even more fun when you’re tuned in to Salem’s best and most handsome forecaster. 😉

Thankfully it’s back to summer for now, so enjoy it while it lasts.

The middle of summer

On By bryanweatherIn 2022//2023, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS, Weather Year 2022/2023Leave a comment

It may be hard to believe, but with the exception of a few brief rainy days, western Oregon has largely been dry and warm since mid April. We are now in the heart of summertime here in the Willamette Valley. We have one item to address and that is a chance for some light showers next Monday and Tuesday.

Summer in Salem is a reliably dry time, but it’s normal to have a drippy day mixed in every great once in awhile, and that’s pretty much what is happening for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Here’s our extended forecast:

I don’t have raindrops on Tuesday, but don’t be shocked if a few fall from the sky that day too. Monday however, will feature the primary shower threat. Notice it’s right back to summer afterwards.

Sometimes it can be interesting to look back into the past for a glimpse at the larger picture as it can offer us a different perspective. This first chart shows total rainfall for each July here in Salem going back to 1970.

The wetter Julys back in the 70s and 80s versus the consistently dry Julys since the 90s really stands out to me. If you are a long term resident of Salem, than maybe you remember Julys being a little bit “rainier” than what we have seen lately, and you would be right. Between 1970 and 1993, we had six years where our July rainfall topped the one inch mark, but we have not topped one inch since ’93 – going on 30 years of Julys having less than an inch of rain. Seems like a drying trend, and to it is, but were Julys always wetter in the past????

Check out this next chart which shows total July rainfall by decade:

Seems like the 70s and 80s were more of an anomaly, and not so much “the usual.” The Julys of the 1950s saw a cumulative rainfall total almost identical to the total saw in the 2010s. July has always been (in my opinion) the peak summer month. Days are long with daylight stretching well into the evenings (which I love), and the weather is reliably dry and warm. August of course is a great month too, but those late evenings start to shorten a bit, and of course there is the “well known” idea that it always rains during the State Fair. We really are in the heart of summer right now. The cool and possibly drippy downturn next week will be very short lived, and before anyone knows it, we will be right back into the 80s. Enjoy and stay safe! 🙂

Active weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

We are starting the day off with partly cloudy skies, but as the day goes on and the sun warms the surface a little more, showers, downpours, and even some thunderstorms will become increasingly likely. Some of these downpours could be really heavy, so just keep that in mind if you’re out and about today.

Expect some light rain and a few PM showers tomorrow, and then we dry out for Wednesday. Thursday through the weekend is looking to stay dry for the valley, but if for any reason that appears to change again I’ll be sure to let you all know. I still think the Cascades see a few thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Speaking of the Cascades, take a look at this wintry scene at the top of Hoodoo this morning.

That’s it for now. Have a wonderful day!!!