It’s been awhile since the last update, but the action is about to pick up. Let’s do a quick check on how things have been going first. Last November we were seeing feet of snow in the mountains during the month of November. As of Wednesday morning, Hoodoo had 0 inches of snow on the ground. Here’s a pic from earlier showing the bare ground up there.
This has been for two reasons. One is we are currently drier than normal for the month of November as the map below shows. Actually it shows precip departures from average from over the past 30 days, so the last few days of October are included, but you get the picture.
Overall, much of the country has been slightly drier. The warmer temperatures accompanying storms earlier in the month is the second reason for the basically non existent snowpack. This doesn’t mean the whole winter will go this way, and don’t let media hype convince you otherwise. In fact, I think it’s time for an update on the forecast to see what’s coming up for our region.
Highlights
Thu: Cloudy to start the day with showers and rain by mid afternoon. This will mark the end of our nice dry streak we’ve had going.
Fri: More showers with breezy winds at times. Winds gusting up to 35mph
Sat: Periods of rain and breezy. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph early dying down to 15 to 20mph later in the day.
Sun: Heavy rain much of the day, and breezy at times. Very poor travel conditions this day.
Mon & Tue: Periods of rain. Possibility exists that we could see some dry periods mixed in between, but overall a wet couple of days.
Wed: Heavy rain moves back over our region. This day has potential to also be a real soaker. Watching for flooding too as the rainfall totals will really start to add up as the week goes on.
Thu: More regular wet weather returns with snow levels finally coming back down to pass levels.
I will provide additional updates in the coming days as the potential for flooding will be elevated over the next week or so. Flooding along streams and creeks will of course be possible; however, localized flooding could take place in low laying areas, streets with clogged drains, and locations with pour drainage. All of the areas mentioned above will be at risk for flooding during the periods of heavier rain. Sunday and Wednesday currently look like they will be the rainiest days, but Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday bare watching.
Being straightforward with you I expect Salem to pick up somewhere between 5 and 6 inches of rain between now and next Thursday – possibly even more. These are significant totals for such a short time frame which is why the flooding issue is looking like it could be a real problem.
The Cascades
Some light snow Thursday with 2 to 4 inches. Friday and Saturday will be really awful though. Those two days will feature hands down the biggest snowstorm of the season for our mountain passes. Heavy snow with strong winds will make for dangerous travel conditions Friday through early Sunday morning.
Temperatures warm up dramatically Sunday afternoon with the warmer rain storm, and just like that, much of the snow will melt away fairly quickly. Fortunately the reservoirs have a lot of space in them at the moment, and they should be able to hold a lot of the incoming water which will greatly limit the major flood potential.
The coast and Coast Range
Travel conditions will be especially bad Saturday, and even more so on Sunday. Both mudslides and coastal flooding are likely in some area Sunday through Wednesday. Not a very good time to travel a bunch. Rainfall totals look to surpass 10 inches for some of the coastal and Coast Range locations now through next Thursday. That will almost certainly send rivers like the Wilson or Nehalem close to or over flood stage.
Alright, hang on and prepare for a whole bunch of rain! We will see how close to that 5 to 6 inches of rain we actually get, but confidence is high that we will see significant rainfall totals.
A nice little update for you all as I hinted at possible wild weather for the Thanksgiving week, and I figured it’s time for an update to see what’s going on. HINT: not much – which is good news for planning Thanksgiving plans. 🙂
Today& Sunday: Dry until about roughly 1 or 2pm. Rain moves in during the afternoon and will last through the night. Plenty of rain and breezy winds will accompany this storm system moving in later today with wind gusts of 20 to 30mph. Snow levels will fall to the passes though. This means snowy highways going across the Cascades both Saturday and Sunday. Rain totals here in the valley will end up probably just shy of half an inch. A decent soaking, but nothing major
Monday – Thursday (Thanksgiving day): No travel concerns. Larger storms will stay well offshore which leaves us in a sort of no man’s land with most days this coming week staying chilly, but dry. Some rain is likely on Wednesday, but again, nothing big. It appears we will be dodging the bullet on any other major storms this holiday week which is great news! Expect lots of fog here in the central valley this coming week with a better shot at sun at locations near the gorge.
Next weekend:The tame weather continues through next weekend as well. This means few (if any) weather concerns when the time comes for people to travel home after all of of our Thanksgiving festivities are done and in the books. 🙂
The Cascades
Fairly terrible travel conditions tonight through most of the day on Sunday. 6 to 12 inches of snow are expected up in the mountains between Saturday night and Sunday night. Winds will also be gusting 30 to 40mph. A real doozy if you need to travel during that time frame; especially since we have not seen much snow yet in the mountains this year. The entire rest of the week looks great though for Cascade travel!!
The Coast
Winds will really be ripping this evening through early Sunday morning. Gusts 35 to 45mph out along the coast will make for a stormy scene.
Similar to the mountains, the coast will also experience much calmer weather as soon as Monday hits. The coast also stands a better chance of seeing sunshine next week than the Willamette Valley. It is very normal during this time of year for the valley to get stuck in fog while the coast experiences full sunshine. It’s both funny and super odd how that works, but anyone who has been here for awhile knows this holds up to be true. On the flip side, a sunny and hot day in summer here in the valley can mean fog and clouds right along the coast. It’s just how it works!!
November has always been a gray month around these parts. Usually this time of year if it’s not raining then it’s cloudy or foggy with only a few sunbreaks mixed in between, and the past several days have proven this to be true as every single day this past week has featured either extensive cloud cover and or fog with some glorious sunbreaks mixed in.
Looking forward there is nothing exciting going on or life altering as far as our weather goes. We have rain coming in tonight through Monday morning, and then some light rain showers Wednesday; otherwise, the majority of this week is looking dry. Just don’t mistake mostly dry as being mostly sunny haha. This is something the weather apps often get wrong around here during winter. Portland and areas near the Columbia River Gorge sometimes see more sun as they often get some east wind, but we could very likely end up foggy most of this week. Any sunbreaks this week should be viewed as a nice bonus.
To recap: The majority of Monday will be dry, Tuesday will be dry, Wednesday will feature a few showers, and then Thursday – Saturday afternoon will again be dry. Highs most of the week will range from upper 40s to lower 50s depending on cloud cover, fog, and how much sun we actually get. Lows 35 to 40° each night. Rain looks to return late in the day on Saturday.
One more important update
I’m keeping a very close eye on the week of Thanksgiving and will have updates for you all later this week as more details become clear. What I can tell you is we might have some extremely wild weather next we. Currently the week of Thanksgiving could end up being a mess. I’m watching the potential for a powerful storm Monday & Tuesday (Nov 20th and 21st) followed by the potential for much colder air to move into our region right around Thanksgiving lowering snow levels dramatically. Still a ways out, but there is certainly a lot to watch, and you know I’ll be on it!! 😉 🙂
Today: Our weather is temporarily nice by November standards; however, things will rapidly change here within the next few hours. Heavy rain, strong gusty winds and even some thunderstorms are expected to rush in around 3 or 4PM today. Periods of rain continue through the evening. Bottom line is our weather goes downhill quickly later today, so prepare for a wild afternoon!
Monday: Stormy weather continues. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph will be common throughout the day along with periods of heavy rain making for a very wet day.
Tuesday: Showers and sunbreaks.
Wednesday – Thursday: Dry weather. I expect these days to feature some sunbreaks, but the vast majority of these days will almost certainly end up being gray with clouds and or fog.
Hahaha! Welcome to the longest post I’ve probably ever written! I cover a lot of content in this post, and it is organized in the following order: 1.) the forecast, 2.) my thoughts on this upcoming winter, 3.) a little lesson on inversions and why we have them in winter, and then lastly, 4.) a little reminder on how ensembles work. This post has been days in the making and it’s long. If you only want the forecast then read just the top portion only, but if you want something long to read, then keep on going!! Because of all the content I have in this post, I recommend you view it from the website itself to ensure the best experience specifically with the slider tools. Here’s a link to the website:https://bryanweatheralert.com/
The forecast
The weather has remained fairly calm and stable the past few days. Cold nights and mornings followed by decently mild afternoons, and this will continue for a few more days. The mornings will especially continue to be downright cold. Lows in the Salem area this Sunday morning ranged from 27 to 30 degrees depending on location. That would be cold even by December standards, so considering the fact that it’s not even November yet makes it all the more impressive.
The forecast is pretty cut and dry as we remain in this cool, but clear and sunny pattern through Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon and evening could be damp with showers moving in. Thursday marks a distinct switch to much rainier and stormier weather. In fact, Thursday is looking like a real soaker! This means you all need to get out and enjoy the dry and sunny weather while it is with us.
My winter outlook thoughts
Many experts gathered Saturday (the 28th) up at OMSI for an annual winter weather forecasting meeting. Presenters often review how well their forecasts turned out from the previous winter before taking a stab at the upcoming winter season. Interesting to say the least.
I don’t really forecast what a whole winter will bring as I think there are far too many variables; however, I get asked a lot and it is sort of fun guess. I look at a wide range of data including current trends, past years which had similar sea surface temperature anomalies, past years with similar upper level patterns, and other factors. Years with similarities are known as analog years. These analog years helps steer my best guess for an upcoming winter more than anything else. Way back in the beginning of August I gave a peak at what MIGHT lay ahead. I actually feel like that guess has held up quite well with a link to my forecast from August if you wish to review how I have faired so far. Today I figured I would just add to that guess refining it some since this is the time of year when all the “experts” give their best guesses haha.
For starters, it’s important to remember that we are in an El Nino pattern across the globe. This is based largely off of the sea surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, and yes, this does have an effect on the weather around the world including right here in Oregon. Based on the various factors I take into account, this is what I’m thinking for the months of November through March:
1.) Near average precip. NOAA and the NWS both will show and share maps on social media indicating we have a dry winter on the way, but I have to disagree. I really think we will end up right near average for precipitation when all is said and done. Many of these El Nino winters end up having one or maybe two months of very wet weather with the rest of the months being on the drier side of things. Add everything together and we end up near average. Again, just my best guess. Below is a fun map showing the climate divisions of the continental United States. This map takes precipitation data from previous years I manually plugged into it. The years I chose are all decent analog years – in my opinion.
Notice how the Willamette Valley in particular has no coloring. This indicates that most of these years ended up somewhere close to average when it come to rainfall/melted snow. This is why I’m leaning towards a fairly average year in the rainfall category.
2.) Warmer than normal temps. This guess is not due to any climate change affects. Afterall, we just had a colder than normal winter last winter which falls more in line with a typical La Nina winter. Unfortunately, we are not in La Nina, instead we have the wild “older” brother El Nino, and El Nino winters consistently end up on the warmer side of average. Warmer than average does not mean no snow or arctic blasts, nor does it mean a bad ski season which I will address in point number 3.
This next map shows how each climate division of the country faired in regards to temperature during these analog years. You may notice the Willamette Valley has no “warm coloring” and that is mainly due to the very cold temperatures from one of these analog years sort of throwing off the rest (1972). Fun fact, Salem’s coldest temperature ever recorded took place in December 1972 when it dropped to negative 12 degrees Fahrenheit! All the other years by and large ended up slightly warmer than average. I also consider other global patterns and conditions when I make these guesses, and I have a feeling this year will end up on the slightly warmer side. 1972 is just proof that exceptions do happen.
3.) Expect a decent ski year, but not top tier. El Nino can be notorious for a few things. The first being that unlike their counterpart “La Nina,” El Nino winters rarely have big snowpacks in lower elevation mountains like the Coast Range or foothill locations like Idanha or Detroit. Two, the snow is typically on the wetter side versus being more powdery, and this is due to the slightly warmer nature of the storms. It takes a colder airmass to produce real powdery snow, and while it does happen in El Nino winters, typically warmer storm systems are not far behind.
One other note is some of our very worst ski seasons have taken place during weak El Nino winters, but this is not a weak El Nino by any means. This El Nino will go down as a moderate to strong one which does change things, and this brings me to another point. I find it lazy that these national weather and forecasting services don’t take a few minutes to distinguish between the effects of weak and strong El Ninos. Use the slider tool to see the differences between the weak and strong El Nino winters.
There is a significant difference between weak and strong El Ninos, and so it is discouraging to see a broad brushed and effortless maps like this one below from NOAA shared all over the internet. Some of these people are getting paid 6 digit figures to make these forecasts, and this is the best they can do?? When you look at the actual data, like the data I just provided, there is nothing to support that Alaska, the west coast, the mid west, and the eastern seaboard all have higher probabilities of seeing a warmer than normal winter during the same winter.
Again, to help illustrate the differences between weak and strong El Nino winters, check out the differences in precipitation patterns during both weak and strong El Nino winters.
The Pacific Northwest stands a much better chance at seeing regular rainfall totals during the stronger El Nino events.
4.) Many of these El Nino winters had a lot of weather action right in the heart of winter – think December and January including arctic blasts and snow events. I feel we have an increased chance of seeing snow and cold during these two months whereas in other years it seems February has been the month for snow and ice.
Final thoughts
Expect very rainy and stormy periods (this includes elevated chances for significant windstorms also) to balance out the dry times this winter.When all is said and done, Salem should end up close to average for precip. Expect a relatively warmer than usual winter. Expect a decent ski season, but not a top tier season, and lastly, I expect we will see some sort of snow, ice and or arctic blast this winter, but as mentioned earlier, the chances are higher these wintry events will take place in December or January.
One big wildcard is February. There seems to be a clear trend for more snow and ice events in February than what we saw in the past. As we stand today, 5 of the past 7 winters have been La Ninas which tend to provide more optimal conditions for February snow, but one of the past 7 years 2018/2019) was an El Nino and it also gave Salem and the Willamette Valley a cold and snowy February, so what is going on? Is February becoming snowier, or was February 2019 an exception? Afterall, there have always been exceptions to the rules “insert 1972” lol. So yes, I’m curious to see what transpires this winter. These next two images are curtesy of Mark Nelson over at Fox 12 Oregon. He regularly does a nice job of explaining what is going on with the weather, and he does a fantastic job of putting together graphics which is why he has always been hands down my favorite go to TV weather person.
163 versus 142.2 inches of snow.
Make sure to use the slider tool to get the full experience haha! Two things stand out to me with one being the total amount of snow did go down by about 20 inches between these two time frames which is fairly significant. Two, look at the drastic change in snowfall for February! Big shift upward there, so again, I’m extremely curious to see what happens this winter. I guess a third thing I noticed is there has been less snow in November lately. November snow has always been rare, but 2011 and then going back to 2006 are the last two years we widespread valley snowfall in November, and neither of those years brought very much. One of these years one would expect to see a good early season November snow event….
Welcome to Inversion season!
Every fall it happens. The sun grows weaker and weaker, and the days grow shorter and shorter causing a phenomenon known as an “inversion.” Inversions take place due to several factors: 1.) Cold air is denser/heavier than warm air which causes it to sink to the surface. 2.) A weak sun angle cannot sufficiently warm the surface during this time of year (now through February). 3.) The days are also shorter which further limits how effective the sun is at warming us up. 4.) Consequently, shorter days equals longer nights of course, so we start out cooler and cooler as fall goes on.
The upper level air pattern which will be in place for Monday is almost identical to the pattern which brought us 80+ degree weather just a few weeks ago and which brought us 90 degree weather back in September, so it’s absolutely amazing to me how the length of the days and the angle of the sun can drastically alters the weather we experience in Salem. Here’s a nice little visual for all the visual learners out there. This just shows how much the angle of the sun drops from summer to winter. This is also why we can have days where the fog never burns off or goes away completely. The sun is just too weak to burn it off this time of year.
Ensembles
Want to keep reading? I’m really on a roll with this post, so why stop now? Haha! Every year or so I like to share charts like this one below to help illustrate how “ensembles” work, and how important of a role they play in forecasting the weather. Ensembles are a collection of all the different forecasts any given computer model has generated. For the most part, I rely more heavily on a European weather forecasting model than on any of the American models. Gasp! I love America, and you all know that about me; however, our weather models are just not to speed with the Europeans. I guess we are too busy with important issues like trying to decide which bathrooms people should use lol, but I digress…. Anyway, these computer models spit out a range of possible outcomes for the weather usually two or four times a day.
An ensemble chart like the one below shows 51 possible outcomes counting a “control” run. These 51 possible outcomes give forecasters a better idea of what will actually happen versus looking at an individual run. Unfortunately many apps and forecasters out there are base their forecasts off of individual runs rather than trends in the ensembles. This is why (especially in winter) your weather apps can swing wildly from rain to sun to showers to snow and back to sun again within a few days. Time goes from left to right on the chart below with each individual horizontal line representing one possible outcome. This specific chart shows 24 hour precipitation, but with some overlap between 12 hour periods, so focus on the general theme and not as much on the actual numbers.
From looking at this chart there are three things which really stand out: 1.) We will stay dry through Wednesday. 2.) The rain returns in full force by Thursday November 2nd. 3.) We stay in a wet pattern through at least the 13th with no sign of a big break in the rain. I’m sure we will see a couple dry days mixed in; however, we are clearly headed into a long stretch of rainy and stormy weather, so buckle up!
I hope this all was interesting for you! Yes, it was a LONG read, but I tried to pack it with a lot of “fun” information, and I felt like right before winter was an appropriate time to do it. I don’t know about you, but I think we are ready for winter now haha! 🙂
Take care, stay safe, enjoy the dry weather, be ready for a soaking on Thursday, and look for another update probably late in the week. 🙂
We have a classic winterlike storm happening tonight with rain and wind. Rain will transition to showers and downpours which will continue through the day on Wednesday. Something else we are seeing which we have not seen since last spring is moderate to heavy snow falling up in the Cascades. In fact, 8 to 12 inches of snow are likely by the time Thursday morning rolls around -a good snowstorm up there for October standards. Here’s the snowfall map showing snow totals measured in inches through Thursday morning.
Highlights
Wed: Sunbreaks and showers/downpours. Chilly with snow showers in the mountains.
Thu & Fri: Both of these days will feature more dry weather than wet. A few showers are expected each day with higher chances during the afternoon hours.
Sat & Sun: A beautiful chilly, but sunny fall weekend! Crisp clear skies with frosty mornings. Yes! Our first frost of the season takes place this coming weekend with lows in the upper 20s to around 30°. Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!! Highs only in the lower 50s. I suspect some of you will suddenly start feeling the Christmas music urge with the cooler weather – just a hunch hehe…… 😉
The dry with sunshine and clear skies will stick around for next Monday too.
We are entering our winter weather season, so don’t expect anymore warm weather until March probably, maybe end of February if we are lucky; although, we all know how nice our Februarys have been lately lol… I guess with that said, the next several days should have something for everyone: rain and downpours, sun, cold frosty mornings, and sunny “mild” afternoons.
Hopefully you all have had chances to enjoy the great outdoors and the wonderful early October sunshine! We have a much wetter week ahead, but there will still be a few dry times here and there. Details below!
Highlights
Monday: Periods of rain.
Tuesday: More rain, and breezy.
Wednesday: Stormy with heavy downpours and gusty winds at times.
Thu & Fri: Both these days should be dry starting out with morning clouds and fog before transitioning to sunbreaks during the afternoon hours. Highs should warm up close to 70°.
Saturday: A weak system will bring a couple light showers. Expect sunbreaks to mix in between showers. Not washout by any means with more dry times than wet.
Sunday: The rainy weather returns with a stronger storm.
The Coast
The coast will see increasingly large waves over the coming days. With maximum wave heights reaching 30 to 40 feet Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before slowly relaxing as we head towards Thursday.
The Cascades
It’s not quite that time of year yet, but some of the highest peaks will see a dusting of snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. No big travel concerns though as passes will be rainy and breezy.
Okay, have a wonderful week and stay safe out there!!
Bryan Weather Alerts 