A brief update for you all tonight with a more detailed forecast planned for Thursday evening. I know Christmas is approaching and people want to know what to expect weatherwise. I’ll do my best to give at least a big picture with more details coming on Thursday.

The key points in tonight’s update are the gusty winds expected between 8 to 4am tonight/early tomorrow morning, and the mostly dry and decently mild weather expected to last Wed afternoon through Saturday morning.

Currently it’s very mild. Check out these 5pm temps from earlier this evening. Very mild for mid December. Notice the gorge keeping Portland a little bit cooler still, but even that will change soon.

1.) The wind: Gusts will generally be in the 35 to 45mph range between 8 and 4am. This is at the upper end of what we have seen so far this season, so I expect a few isolated power outages or downed limbs. This is not a major windstorm though, and many of us might not notice given the strong winds will take place overnight. Could be a good night so secure any loose items, or Christmas decorations that could catch the wind.

2.) Dry weather: Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning should be mostly dry. Slight chance for a sprinkle or brief shower, but the vast majority of this timeframe will be dry. It will also be quite mild. Highs in the mid to upper 50s will make it feel rather balmy compared to the chilly weather we have been seeing.

3.) Christmas week: A parade of storms is set to hit the pacific northwest beginning Saturday afternoon and lasting through next week. Expect plenty of rain each day, gusty winds at times, and even rain up in the Cascade passes most days. Snow levels will be fairly high, so I’ll keep an eye on rainfall totals and the potential for any flooding. There are some powerful storms expected to hit up and down the west coast next week, and their actual routes will have big impacts on our local weather. Hopefully by Thursday evening we will have a better idea of what to expect with some of those stronger storms.

Stay safe, happy Tuesday evening, and plan on hearing the wind a bit tonight as the cold front and stronger gusts move through.

It’s Wednesday night and a good time for a quick update. The main message is we see no big wind storms, and no threat of flooding either. Honestly, just regular old pacific northwest rain events.

Details

Thursday will be chilly with lots of clouds and a few sprinkles or light rain showers at times. Friday through Monday will feature numerous showers and periods of rain along with breezy winds at times. The coast will feature gusty winds at times above 40mph, but that’s nothing for those communities.

The cascades will see 15 to 20 inches of new snow at the ski resorts between now and Monday night. Our snowpack continues to look great for this early in the winter thanks to the cooler storms we saw back in November, and the lack of any big warm rain storms to melt the snow.

Highs during the next several days will bounce around between 46 and 50 degrees. Nothing extreme, and nothing real wild on the horizon either. It’s been a really quiet winter so far, but I’ll continue to keep an eye for any big changes.

In the meantime, stay safe, enjoy, and have a great rest of your week!

After more than ten days of dry weather, rain finally returned Saturday. Showers with a few sunbreaks are on tap for the rest of today. We dry out Monday through Wednesday. A weak storm on Thursday, and then a stronger storm likely for next Friday night and Saturday. Details below.

Details

Today: Showers with brief sunbreaks in between. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50°.

Mon – Wed: Fog and low clouds are likely each of these days. Highs will vary though depending on fog. Best guess would be near 40 give or take a few degrees. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 28 to 32 degree range .

Thu: Dry start and then rainy and damp in the afternoon. Lots of cloud cover and chilly. High 45°.

Fri: A mostly dry day in between storm systems. Lows will start out near freezing thanks to the clearing skies, and highs will only reach the mid 40s. Rain moves in Friday night.

Sat: Watching the potential for a much stronger storm to impact the region this day. I’ll be watching closely with updates to follow. Right now, high winds along the coast seem pretty likely, but depending on the strength and track of the storm, strong winds could also impact the valley. Wintry weather in the Columbia River Gorge is another possibility with this storm, so stay tuned!

November 2024

In other (old news), November 2024 has come to a close, and here are the stats.

November was slightly warmer than average at 1.3 degrees above normal. November was also wetter than average despite the dry end to the month. We ended up with 7.17″ of rain which is 1.22″ above normal or 120% of average.

Nothing super remarkable happened in November. The highlights for our immediate region would be the early snowpack and start of the ski season. Other than that, nothing real big took place. We avoided the worst of the “bomb cyclone.” We also were spared the heaviest rain. Southern Oregon was not so lucky and experienced some flooding mid month.

Overall a little warmer and wetter than average. At the national level, one can see that much of the country was on the warmer side with the intermountain region and southwest being the main exception.

How do we stand so far this December? Well, temperature wise it has very much flipped with the eastern US experiencing some extremely cold weather so far this month.

As a weather guy, something interesting I notice are the pockets of below average temperatures found out west surrounded by much warmer temperature anomalies. The Willamette Valley, some of the valleys east of the Cascades, and the Snake River Valley in Idaho are all running colder than normal due to the strong inversions we have been seeing. Meanwhile, the mountains around us have been warmer than average. Goes to show what some pesky fog and low clouds can do.

That’s all for today, but keep an eye out for a storm update later this week. Stay safe and healthy out there! 🙂

We are on day 15 in a row with measurable precip, so yes, it’s been a soggy November, and we have a couple more soggy days to go before drying out. In fact we should dry out real nicely just in time for Thanksgiving with dry weather leading up to the holiday, dry weather during, and mostly dry afterwards making for easier travel easier, and safer Cascade passes. One brief exception to the completely dry weekend would be a quick hitting batch of showers Friday. Details further below, but first, let’s start with a recap of our weather lately.

This past week went mostly to plan with the whole “bomb cyclone,” but with a few unfortunate blips. My forecast from last Sunday stated details for Wednesday verbatim as “Showers with some extended dry times mixed in during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.” Our high temperature was 53°, so a hit there, and the max wind gust in Salem with the storm was 38mph which fell right in with my forecast as well – another hit. Unfortunately, this is where the hits end. The “extended dry times mixed in…” didn’t exactly go to plan. For some of you, Wednesday was basically dry all day long, but for others, it was soaker.

A band of steady precip trained close to the same position for almost 6 hours Wednesday! The forecasting models I use hinted at this happening, and I knew it was possible, but nothing showed it being quite that consistent. Most of west Salem, Amity, McMinnville, Dallas all had a mainly dry day; however, parts of south Salem, Stayton, Turner, and Albany experienced rain for much of the afternoon and early evening hours.

This is just one of the reasons why forecasting snow is so tough here. Imagine if that had been snow instead of rain. We would have been talking about a major snowstorm in Albany and even in parts of Salem while other parts of town got almost nothing, but since it was just another “rainy” day, nobody really cared if the forecast was off a little. So remember that the next time we have a tricky snow event to forecast.

Forecast details

Looking ahead it appears today and Monday will be a continuation of this chilly, cloudy, and rather damp weather. Highs today and tomorrow will top out only around 49 or 50° with periods of rain and occasional showers.

Tue: A good number of sunbreaks, and a chance for a couple brief showers.

Wed – Mon: An extended stretch of dry or at least mostly dry weather. This is perfect timing for travel plans, holiday activities, and maybe putting up Christmas lights! It will be a real treat to have several days of dry weather. Expect some very cold nights with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, and chilly afternoons despite the sunshine as highs range between 44 and 48°.

There is a chance of a few showers Friday, but nothing big, long lasting, or real impactful. With rain increasing the further north you go into southwest Washington. This should be the only exception in what could be a fairly dry (for winter) stretch of days.

The Cascades

The Cascades are having an almost historic beginning to the snow season with Hoodoo reporting a base of 32 inches.

The snow water equivalent, which is essentially how much liquid water would be left behind if all the snow in one spot were to be melted down, is currently at near record levels for this time of year. As you can see, the entire state is doing incredibly well!

An excellent start to the ski season, and with another 5 to 10 inches on the way before Tuesday ends I can see a lot of people getting out and enjoying the slopes this holiday weekend!

I’ll continue to keep an extra close eye on the forecast. We have had a pretty active stretch of weather lately, and while things are calming down for the moment, the jet stream is still pretty active out in the pacific, cold air is building to the north, and it is only November…

Stay safe and healthy out there!

Lots to cover tonight (Sunday night) in the weather department, so let’s dive right in.

Short version

Showers and downpours for Monday. Chilly temperatures will lead to snowfall in the Coast Range Monday through Tuesday morning. A powerful storm arrives Tuesday evening bringing strong winds to the coast, gusty winds in the valley, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall will be frequent Thursday through Sunday leading to at least some flooding. More details below.

Details

Monday: Showers, sunbreaks, and some heavier downpours are likely. Morning lows in the upper 30s, and a high of only 45°.

Tuesday: Showers transition into steady rain late in the afternoon or early evening hours. Gusty winds 25 to 35mph are also expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. High of 49°.

Wednesday: Showers with some extended dry times mixed in during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.

Thu – Sun: There is no one big storm I’m watching for the time being, but rather multiple waves of rain and mountain snow which are predicted to traverse the region during this time. The impacts include the possibility for strong winds, higher chances for some creek or river flooding, but no major flooding, and no flooding on the Willamette is expected this week. Other impacts to be expected include ponding on roadways where leaves have clogged drains, localized flooding in general low lying areas and typical flood prone areas, and continued snowfall up in the mountains. Highs ranging from 50 to 55°.

Sunday (November 17th) was the 8th day in a row with measurable rainfall, and when its total gets officially recorded we will have well over 4 inches of rain for the month so far putting us well above normal. Seasonal creeks are beginning to fill up, and rivers around the area have been slowly, but steadily rising. It’s for those reasons I’m a little more concerned about flooding than usual despite the lack of any major rainstorms in the current forecast.

I had the opportunity to hike Silver Creek Falls today and I got to see firsthand how high those creeks are flowing, which again, adds to my elevated concern for at least some flooding this week.

The jet stream is extremely active right now, and appears to stay active the for foreseeable future with no sign of any long dry or calm stretches of weather. I will do my very best to keep you all updated, especially if I see something concerning or impactful.

The Cascades will continue to see heavy snowfall now through early Wednesday morning before the snow level rises with the warm sector of the Wednesday storm. This estimated snowfall map shows upwards of 24 to 30 inches falling above 4000 feet between this evening and Wednesday morning!

There you have it! No boring weather here for the time being. Stay safe and have a great Monday!