Category: WEATHER ALERTS

Wintry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The forecast and weather the past almost 3 weeks has been incredibly stable.  I’ve personally enjoyed the sunny weather, but it’s all coming to an end.  Lots going on and much to cover, so let’s dive in!

Super short version

We have a rainy and breezy day for Friday. Saturday will be chilly with sunbreaks and showers. Sunday – Wednesday we maintain a shower and sunbreak pattern, but temperatures will be cold enough that snow could accumulate anywhere in the valley, and at times even along the coast. Accumulations are most likely between 6pm to 10am (during the nighttime and early morning hours). By the time we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures might be cold enough for snow to stick at anytime of the day. No major snow storms are currently being forecasted, but with cold air moving in and storms close by, things could easily change…

Details

Friday:  Rain and wind will greet us as we head out our doors Friday morning.  Classic northwest stormy weather.  Rainfall could be rather heavy at times, and winds will generally gust in the 20 to 30mph range, so not too wild.  Expect sunbreaks later in the day.  Cooler air begins to move in and our temperatures start dropping.

Saturday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow should stay in the Coast Range and Cascade Range during this day. This estimated radar image actually portrays my thoughts very well. Notice blue (snow) staying in the our mountain ranges, and also notice the showery nature of the precip with some areas getting very little action.

In general, this type of scattered shower pattern is what we can expect through next Wednesday with the biggest difference being the gradual arrival of colder temps as time goes on.

Sunday & Monday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow will be limited to the nighttime and morning hours, and only some of us will see snow due to the scattered nature of the showers. Because of those factors, there really is no way to pinpoint exactly who will score snow in this type of pattern. Afternoon temperatures rise to around 40 degrees each day.  Throw in a few sunbreaks and road conditions during the daytime hours should be good for normal activities here in the valley.

If this was regular shower pattern then nobody would notice if they got a few hundredths of an inch of rain versus a third of an inch. In this case it makes a huge difference between a few harmless flakes or a blanket of 3 inches of snow.

Tuesday & Wednesday:  Similar to Sunday and Monday except we will have a slightly colder airmass these days which means a heavy snow shower could briefly cover all surfaces (including roads) even during the middle of the day. Highs in the upper 30s and lows around 29/30°. For now I’m going with nothing to 2 inches of snow each night, and up to an inch possible during the daytime hours.

Thursday – Saturday:  A wide range of solutions are out there, but I can tell you with a fair amount of confidence that we stay cold with additional snow chances very much on the table. In fact, there are strong signals we stay in a colder pattern for the foreseeable future beyond next weekend.  Winter is making it’s comeback!

Hazards

Icy streets. Due to the widely scattered nature of the showers we are expecting, skies will have better chances at clearing out each night. This means icy streets for your neighborhood – even if you don’t get snow. Frozen water leftover from showers can cause just as many issues. As the week goes on and temperatures cool off even more, I expect road issues to last longer into the daytime hours. Just be extra careful on those paved surfaces in the coming days.

Things I’m watching for:

An increase in moisture would equal significant snow totals. This is totally in the realm of possibility with this specific setup. The chart below shows some hefty snowfall totals (legit snowstorms) mixed in there for Salem. At the moment such outcomes are in the minority, but things can change quickly.

On the other hand, should moisture trend to the drier side (also unlikely, but possible), then this time frame could end up being rather uneventful.

My best guess

Expect scattered snow accumulations of nothing to 2 inches both Sunday and Monday mornings with lows around 32 and highs around 40°. Remember, some of us will probably end up with nothing.

More widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still not guaranteed due to the showery nature of the pattern, but odds increase thanks to the colder temperatures. Highs in upper 30s. Lows 28 to 30°.

The mountains will of course see tons of snow. 2 to 3 feet of new snow between now and next Thursday for the Cascades, and at least several inches up in the Coast Range. Be prepared for snowy roads whether you are traveling east or west of the valley.

Stay safe and happy Friday! I’m sure I’ll have additional updates as often as time allows!

5 more dry days

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The super quick version

We have about 5 more days of dry weather before rain finally returns to our region Thursday night or Friday. Mostly sunny skies, cold nights, and highs in the upper 40s will continue through Wednesday. Thursday should be dry, but with increasing clouds, and actual rain returns late that night. Showers should continue through next weekend with lowering snow levels. Colder and possibly snowier weather is possible as we head into February. More on that at the end of this post. 🙂

Details

As you all know by now, the deep south had an extremely rare and historic snowstorm this past week. Actual blizzard conditions where observed in many locations from Louisiana to Florida. These photos of the snow covered and frozen bayou and blizzard like conditions along the freeway heading into Florida are just amazing and almost unbelievable.

Here in Salem we got gently brushed (again) by that large mass of frigid arctic air. That is why our air has been dry, our days have been sunny with no more fog, and our nighttime lows have dipped well into the 20s several degrees below average. This weekend we are again getting brushed by a weak lobe of colder air. That’s the cause of the breezy winds we are seeing today out of the north. The result is colder lows well into the 20s with dry and sunny days.

This satellite image shows just how sunny and clear the entire pacific northwest is at the moment. The snow cover in the mountains and higher elevations also really stands out.

Here’s the next 7 days

Looking ahead

Ten days ago I put out a forecast mentioning the potential for colder (possibly snowy) weather later in the month. I was fairly vague because it was still a long ways off plus the weather models had a large spread of outcomes (disagreement) regarding where the cold air would end up. We now know it dove through the middle of the nation.

Next Sunday (Feb 2nd) models seem to be honing in on the colder arctic air moving MUCH closer to us, and possibly directly over us. When it’s more than 7 days out like it is at the moment, we look for consistency and trends. Below is a compilation of multiple model runs from the past few days showing the weather pattern up around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere for Sunday morning February 2nd. Blue and or green shading is much colder than average, and the warm red and orange colors are just that – warmer than average lol… 😉

Definitely a clear trend for colder air here in Oregon, but how far south and how far west or east it goes will have a profound effect on our weather. Some of the solutions you see above would give us nothing but cold rain. Many of those solutions would put us in one of those tricky snow shower setups, and some of those would give us a full on snowstorm and or arctic blast. Odds are increasing that we will see something wintry, but still a little too early to get overly excited.

One more little piece of evidence telling us that something snowy might be heading our direction is this final chart which I’ve shared before. Each horizontal line going from left to right is a possible outcome for how many inches of snow Salem could see on those dates (the dates are located along the bottom). This model tends to overdue precip totals a little bit, so pay attention to lines showing 2 or more inches of snow.

Typically during wintertime I will see maybe one to three lines showing snowfall, but when I start counting 20+ then I really start paying attention. Lots of time for things to change of course, but keep this one on your radar. In the meantime, stay safe, and enjoy the sunny and chilly weather!

Colder weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a quick minute since I’ve had a good chance to write up a forecast.  I suppose if snow had been imminent I might have found time, but it’s been a pretty calm couple of weeks weatherwise. 

Looking ahead it seems obvious we will stay in a calm weather pattern for at least the next 8 days.  The grey skies and low clouds which have dominated our weather will give way to mostly sunny skies by Friday afternoon with sunshine lasting through at least Monday.

Over the past few days we have been in a pattern some people call “fake cold.”   Regardless of what type of “cold” it is, the feeling on your skin is very much the same lol.  This type of pattern would actually bring us very warm temperatures during spring or summer, but the low sun angle and long nights keep us cold down here in the valley below the layer of clouds and fog thus the name “fake cold.” This chart is a look at height anomalies for this time of year around thirty thousand feet up in the atmosphere. Basically Oregon is directly under a very warm ridge of high pressure.

While we sat in the upper 30s under a chilly blanket of fog and low clouds these past few days, locations in central Oregon and along the coast have been soaring into the mid to upper 50s thanks to the warm atmosphere up above.  Check out the 2pm temperatures from today.

The forecast

This weekend a frigid and deep arctic air mass plunges into the center of the nation.  Temperatures will fall below zero in many locations in the upper midwest.  Check out the forecasted morning lows for this coming Monday. Lows in the upper 20s to 30 right along the Gulf of Mexico even. Brrrrr! Click the image for a closer look.

Oregon just gets brushed by this arctic blast.  You can see the cold air encompassing much of the country by Sunday night with Oregon right on the edge of it.

The result is we dry out, turn sunny, and temperatures will drop a bit. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s.  Even with full sunshine, highs will gradually cool off each day.  Something I’ve observed during similar events in the past is how the colder airmass gradually takes hold – in part due to the long nights slowly helping us too cool down more than the previous day.  You can notice the downward trend in the temps from Friday through Monday.

Thu: Mostly cloudy with lows that morning around 34° highs around 45°.

Fri: Sunnier with a low of 31° High of 46°

Sat: Mostly sunny and dry. Low: 29° High: 44°

Sun: Sunny. Low: 26° High: 43°

Mon: Sunny. Low: 23° High: 40°

Tue: Mostly sunny. Low: 23° High: 40°

Wed & Thu: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s and highs in the low to mid 40s.

Bottom line is it will be sunny and beautiful outside, but it’s going to be very cold.

Looking further ahead past the 23rd, I see what appears to be our first real shot at even colder (and possibly snowy) weather.  Still too far out for details or specifics, and things can always change, but I wouldn’t be mentioning it if there wasn’t at least a decent chance of it happening. The next chart is for Saturday evening the 26th. Yes, it’s a ways out, but it’s something I’m watching for. This shows the pacific northwest entrenched in very cold air. At the moment, many of the major weather models agree that a batch of cold arctic air could be paying us a visit later in the month, but stay tuned for more details.

The trickiest part of forecasting cold and snow here is that if the cold airmass pours out over the ocean too far from us then we just get a chilly rain. If it slides to the east, then we just get more sunny and cold days (like what we have in store this weekend), with no snow. The cold air really has to come down almost directly over us for things to get real interesting.

I’ll keep watching for trends or changes to the forecast. In the meantime, stay safe and stay warm out there!

Wild weather update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s been a very rainy, and at times, windy week. The wind event Christmas night pretty much met expectations with most valley locations recording gusts between 45 and 50mph, and some locations reaching the 55mph mark. At the peak of the storm about 30,000 PGE customers were without power in Marion County.

Rainfall has also been fairly consistent and even heavy at times. Here are rainfall totals for the past 7 days.

Generally 3 to 4 inches in the Willamette Valley upwards of 7 to 12 inches of precipitation in both the Coast and Cascade Ranges. Ignore the locations showing no rainfall. Sure, there’s a rain shadow effect, but it’s not that severe. Technical issues are to blame for those spots.

Salem can expect an additional inch of rain now through Sunday. All this rain is adding up and taking a toll on local rivers. Below is a chart showing both observed and forecasted river heights for the Willamette River in Salem.

The Willamette is definitely running full, but it is forecasted to stop just short of causing any major issues or extensive road closures.

The Forecast

Steady rain returns overnight and lasts through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon will feature showers and downpours with a few sunbreaks mixed in. Winds will once again turn quite strong during the day tomorrow. Gusts 30 to 40mph are possible late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

Snow will be heavy up in the Cascades with 12 to 18 inches of new snow falling above 4000′ tonight through Sunday night.

Monday: More sunbreaks, but scattered showers and downpours will show up from time to time.

Tue & Wed: Tuesday will be dry. Fog is likely Tuesday morning especially, but we should manage some decent sunbreaks during the afternoon. Rain moves in late Tuesday night right around midnight. So there are no guarantees your midnight street runs and fireworks will be completely dry. 😉

Thu – Sun: The rest of the week appears to stay on the wet side with periods of rain and frequent showers.

The rain Sunday could cause a few additional problems for some of you, but once we get through Sunday the threat for flooding will subside for the time being. There are no wind storms on the horizon either. Just regular Oregon rain as we ring in the new year.

Stay safe and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Merry Christmas and wild weather!

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

I hope everyone is having a great Christmas! This will be one of the shortest posts ever. Just wanted to highlight the back to back storms on our doorstep.

Storm number one is just beginning to arrive. It will bring 1 to 1.5 inches of rain between now and Thursday evening. The bigger story will be the winds. Winds will gradually increase throughout the day reaching their peak between 9pm tonight and 2am. Widespread wind gusts of 45 to 55pmh are likely. Expect power outages tonight throughout the region.

Thursday will be showery with heavy downpours at times and winds gusting to 30mph.

Thursday night and Friday morning is when storm number two rolls in. Expect another inch plus of rainfall which will push some smaller creeks closer to overflowing, and again, another intense round of wind. For this storm we have the potential for just as strong of winds. Right now I’m expecting widespread top wind gusts to reach 45 to 55mph here in the valley. Expect additional power outages.

Traveling over the Cascades will be rough. Snow levels are fairly high for both these storms, but the tops of all our mountain passes will be prone to heavy wet snow with near whiteout conditions at times this afternoon through Friday morning.

Saturday and Sunday both look wet with more gusty winds at times, but for now let’s enjoy what we have and who we have around us, stay safe, and let’s see what happens.

Wild Christmas weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The quick version is we have multiple strong weather systems aiming for our region. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds will be common now through Sunday. This will be a typical northwest Oregon rain and wind pattern, but at a slightly more extreme level, and with very few breaks between storm systems. More details below!

Details

Today: In between storms and mostly dry until evening. Rain moves in tonight. Expect around half an inch of rain and wind gusts 20 to 25mph.

Tuesday (Christmas Eve): Showers and sunbreaks as we sit between storms. Around a quarter to half an inch of additional rainfall. Mainly dry during the evening.

Wednesday (Christmas Day): Dry morning. Rain moving in during the afternoon and lasting through the remainder of the night. Over an inch of rain is expected with this storm and wind gusts 40 to 45mph are likely with isolated gusts to 50mph!

Thursday: Steady rain through much of the day with gusty winds at times.

Friday – Sunday: Three more separate storms will arrive one right after the other with very little time in between. 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall. Winds will continue to be strong with each storm. Wind gusts generally 40 to 45mph- isolated gusts to 50mph.

Add all that rainfall up and we could easily see at least 4 inches of rain this week. Flooding will slowly, but steadily become more of an issue for people living near flood prone creeks, streams, and low laying areas as soils become increasingly saturated.

Below is a map showing the estimated mean total precipitation through Sunday. This gives Salem 4+ inches of rain and several inches more in the mountains.

The good news is some of that rain in the mountains will fall as snow limiting our flooding chances. Here’s the mean total snowfall map for the same period of time.

The Cascade ski resorts should pick up a couple feet of snow by Sunday night. The issue is that warmer rain will briefly interrupt this nice snowpack building Thursday night and again on Saturday as snow levels climb above 5000′. Fortunately, we finish the weekend (Sunday) with low snow levels to sorta help top off the mountains with a nice fresh coating of new snow. Worst travel times through the Cascades will be tonight, Wednesday night, Thursday, and again on Sunday.

The Coast

The windiest times will be Wednesday night and early Thursday with gusts up to 65mph!

Thursday night will bring a second round of strong winds. Gusts with this storm should range 50 to 60mph.

Friday night will bring a third round of strong winds. Gusts 45 to 55mph.

Swells will generally stay above 25 feet now through Saturday night! This will be a very extended period of high seas out along our coastline. Swells could reach upwards of 40 plus feet at times later this week. So have fun, but watch out if you head to the coast!

Merry Christmas and have a safe and wonderful time celebrating the birth of our Savior!!

A very stormy Christmas week

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s Thursday night when I’m writing this, and wanted to give another update concerning our weather conditions leading up to Christmas and the days to follow.

Highlights

The mostly dry weather continues now through Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon is when the action starts to pick up as the first of multiple storms moves in. Sometimes when forecasting several days out I notice trends, and in next week’s case there is a currently a trend for storms to take direct aim at Oregon and Washington.

1.) Flooding: At this point there is no immediate or obvious threat for flooding, but I will continue to watch closely for any signs of that changing. For the moment plan on only minor flooding near small drainage creeks or basins. As time goes on and the soil saturates more, flooding could become a more serious issue. Something to watch closely.

2.) The increasingly high chance for strong winds here in the Willamette Valley. The time frame I’m most concerned about is Wednesday through Sunday (25th – 29th). This time frame will feature some very strong storms out in the pacific, but this is more of a heads up still than a forecast as we are still multiple days out.

3.) Waves and wind at the coast. The Oregon coast will be living up to its true nature over the next ten days. Powerful winds and high waves will make the coast both exciting to be at and dangerous at times. Swells as high as 40 feet continue to show up on the many forecasts I track at various times next week. Those will make for some great storm watching conditions, but they could also cause localized areas of coastal flooding.

The winds out along the coast will also be quite strong at times. Just this past Tuesday night the coast experienced winds of 50 to 70mph between Newport and Pacific City knocking out power to several thousand people. The coast is no stranger to wind, but several more rounds of that will take its toll. Wind gusts 40 to 50mph are expected out there Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and possibly much stronger winds Wednesday through Sunday of next week.

4.) Mountain snow. Due to the warmer nature of some of these storms, the Cascades may not bee too bad for travel. The snow level hovers right around 4500 to 5500 feet over the next several days meaning there could be snow near the very tops of many of our local passes from time to time, but it won’t be much or long lasting.

Practical steps to take. Knowing that it’s the busy Christmas season, just check around the house and make sure you are prepared if you lose power for an extended period of time. It’s not sure bet, but chances are much higher than usual for strong winds here in the valley at some point over the next ten days. I’ll keep watching things closely with both another update and additional details hopefully in a couple days.

Have a wonderful and safe Friday! One more day with my students before we head off for break. 🙂