Welcome to fall! We’ve had some really nice September weather the past couple of weeks, but now we are shifting gears into a much wetter and stormier fall pattern. Lots to cover, so let’s dive in! 🙂

Details

This will be the stormiest stretch of weather we have seen since April, and with trees just beginning to lose their leaves, I think local ponding on roadways will be one of the largest threats in the coming days. Lightning, thunder, and small hail are also possible this week with some of the downpours.

Monday: A very wet day with frequent periods of rain. Late day showers and downpours. Watch for street ponding.

Tuesday: Sunbreaks, showers and afternoon thundershowers. A stormy fall day for sure! Watch for street ponding. Gusty winds 20 to 30mph are possible Tuesday night as another batch of steady rain moves onshore. Nothing too wild, but notably breezier than what we have seen lately.

Wednesday: After a rainy night, most of Wednesday will feature scattered showers and thundershowers with sunbreaks mixed in. Small hail possible. Watch for street ponding.

Thursday and Friday: We should end up seeing more dry times than wet times during these two days. Thursday should only see a few scattered showers with plenty of dry breaks in between. Friday might be slightly wetter with a few more showers, but not a big storm by any means.

Saturday and Sunday: We will end September and kick off October with a beautiful fall weekend. Both next Saturday and Sunday should be excellent days for outdoor events. Morning fog is likely, but with plenty of afternoon sun. Slight chance for showers Saturday, but the vast majority of the day will be dry. Sunday should stay 100% dry, and actually, next Monday will probably stay dry too. Chilly overnight lows though. Lows 42 to 46°.

The Oregon Coast

Waves will dramatically increase in strength and size tonight through Wednesday. No tiptoeing into the storm season this year out along our beaches and headlands. Wonderful wave watching weather, but dangerous if you find yourself too close to the surf. This map shows the maximum wave heights (in feet) expected Monday evening. Looks like 30 plus foot waves out there near the coastline with higher waves out at sea.

The Cascades

No need to worry about snow in the Cascades yet. For now snow levels will remain WELL above our mountain passes.

Okay, enjoy the stormy weather and have a wonderful week!!

It’s a great time of year with sunny and mild days, but nice cool nights. I think this is the exact type of weather so many of us Oregonians have grown to love. The forecast is very straight forward with no more thunderstorms or anything wild on the horizon for now, so I say we enjoy the calm weather while it lasts. Here’s the next 7 days:

Enjoy and stay safe! 🙂

A fresh update for you all with a look at a few chances for thunderstorms, a quick recap of how Hurricane Hilary affected Oregon, and of course an extended forecast. Let’s start with Hurricane Hilary.

As mentioned in the previous update, the remnants of the hurricane were forecasted to move through eastern Oregon, and sure enough they did. Check out the 3 day rainfall totals.

Some of the driest parts of the state picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain. A few spots up in the Wallowas recorded upwards of 3 inches! That’s a good soaking for those areas. No big wildfire threats over there for the time being. Meanwhile, the Cascades, Coast Range, and the valleys of western Oregon remain dry with active fires still burning.

Moving onto the forecast, it’s looking more interesting as we could have our best chance for thunderstorms of the entire summer this Thursday night and Friday. We could see a rare nocturnal thunderstorm event thanks to an upper level low pulling monsoonal moisture from the south. Below are three images showing the position of this upper level low. These charts are showing wind direction and temperature anomalies for this time of year for about 13,000 feet up in the atmosphere.

Notice where I added the “L” near the center of this upper level low off of our coast, and notice how it just sits there day after day after day. On the days when it is further offshore we will see temperatures soar into the low 90s, but when it gets closer we start seeing chances for storms and or just plain old showers and cooler temperatures. Extremely tricky to forecast when it’s just meandering carelessly out there, but I will do my very best. Reminds me of some of my students who sort of just meander around the hall until they eventually stumble into class…. 😉

Extended forecast

Thu: Sunny and very warm.

Thursday night – Friday morning: Thunderstorms are possible anywhere from the coast to the Cascades and everywhere in between. Like usual no particular location is guaranteed a storm, and some of us will see nothing, but others of you will luck out and see a good light show Thursday night. 🙂

Friday afternoon/evening: Should dry out nicely. This is of course assuming we even get rain Thursday night. 😉

Sat & Sun: Very warm, mostly sunny, and dry days. Thunderstorms up in the Cascades each afternoon/evening.

Mon – Wed: The same upper level low which will bring us storms this week will finally move in at some point during this time frame. Depending on its trajectory, we could see regular showers, some light drizzle, or more thunderstorms. Regardless, these few days will be noticeably cooler and cloudier with increased chances for rain.

I’ll do my best to keep you all updated on any changes. I’ve definitely enjoyed posting a little more regularly as of late, and I hope to continue. Stay cool, safe, and healthy out there!! 🙂

First, the cooler nights and more reasonable daytime highs have been extremely nice after the intense heatwave we just experienced.

Second, it has become clear we will now stay dry through the next several days. In the previous update I mentioned Salem had a chance for a couple showers Sunday and Monday. Well that chance has shifted to our east. In fact, eastern Oregon is expected to get soaked in the coming days as the leftovers of Hurricane Hilary move through that particular region. Here’s the forecasted track of the storm.

I should emphasize eastern Oregon will only be experiencing remnants of the hurricane. Rain and a few thunderstorms will be the primary effects felt in Oregon. So, don’t buy into any hype you see stating how a hurricane is going to hit Oregon.

This map of the estimated rainfall totals through Wednesday does a good job of showing the soaking rain the eastern parts of the state are expected to receive. It’s definitely odd to see cities like Ontario or Baker City getting more rain than locations on the coast.

Okay, enough hurricane talk lol. On to our forecast.

Highlights

Today and Sunday: Highs 91 to 95, but lows should dip down close to 55. Smoky skies will return, especially Saturday evening through Sunday.

Mon – Wed: Highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 50s. Excellent late summer weather in my humble opinion with partly cloudy skies and some light breezes.

For now there is no rain in sight meaning we stay high and dry here in the Willamette Valley until further notice.

Stay safe, and enjoy the warm weather.