Wild weather

It’s been awhile since I provided you all with a state of the art Bryan Weather Alert forecast! 😉

I’ve been focusing on spending extra time with family and job not to mention our weather here has really not been all that exciting; however, that’s all about to change as we have an extremely dynamic system arriving Sunday night and Monday. There’s a ton to cover with this storm, so let’s get started.

First things first, most of Sunday will still be dry which means you have time to get those outdoor projects done. Sometime between 4 and 6PM is when rain arrives and it should continue to fall through the night. Winds will kick up during the afternoon as the storm approaches with gusts up to 35mph.

This graphic for Monday’s weather covers the coast, Salem area, and the Cascades. Additional details below.

This type of pattern is great for giving the mountains 2 to 3 times as much precipitation as the valley which means tons of snow for the Cascades and a major soaking rain in the Coast Range. The total precipitation map through Tuesday night shows this very well.

The other concern on will be the thunderstorms we COULD see in between sunbreaks on Monday. The atmosphere is going to be unusually unstable Monday which could lead to the sudden development of thunderstorms at any point during the day Monday. These storms have the potential to contain lightning, thunder, and small hail; however, the largest threat with these storms will likely be the heavy downpours, and very gusty winds associated with them. Wind gusts could reach 40 to 45mph with some storms. These winds will be very localized, but they have the potential to cause a few problems for the areas they strike.

There is also a slight risk for a tornado or funnel cloud Monday across the region too.

We’ll see what happens, and of course even in a pattern like this, tornados in Oregon are typically very weak and still few and far between. It’s just going to be a bit more of a risk than we are use to seeing. Something to watch out for.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Tuesday will be a shower and sunbreak type of day with showers ending abruptly right around sunset. More snow for the Cascades.

Dry, sunny, and beautiful springtime weather Wednesday and Thursday with highs upper 60s Wed, and around 75° on Thu.

The threat of showers returns next weekend, but still a ways out, so we will focus on that later.

Take care and have a great rest of your weekend!!

Rain moving in soon

Right now (just before 11AM Saturday) as I type this up, it’s actually incredibly sunny outside with virtually no clouds in sight; however, things will change quickly this afternoon as a strong cold front races inland. The estimated radar for 2PM today shows a rather heavy band of rain moving right across the region at that time which will end our nice dry weather.

Here’s a link to the satellite loop which is also doing a good job of tracking our incoming system.

Gusty winds out of the south/southwest will accompany this band of rain with gusts of 35 to 45mph likely today and Sunday. Rain totals between now and Sunday night will come close to reaching 1 inch here in the mid valley with some “lucky” folks surpassing that. Here’s the total rainfall ending at 11PM Sunday night.

Notice totals over an inch around Corvallis and of course along the coast. Again, things will change QUICKLY here in the next few hours as we plung back into a very stormy pattern.

Next check out the snowfall totals for today and Sunday.

Plenty of new snow up in the Cascades with about 10 to 15 inches falling above 4000′. Hazardous travel conditions up there from 4/5PM today through most of the day tomorrow. Great news for the snowpack though!

There you have it. A sudden switch to stormy weather approaches. This is the first storm in a long, long series of storms, so I hope you enjoyed the dry weather while it has lasted.

Take care and happy Saturday!!

Morning flurries

We have a chance of seeing flurries or even some light snow showers early Thursday morning. This is not going to be a big snow storm at all, but with nothing else going on weather wise I figured it would be prudent to mention it. This won’t be even close to the amount of snow we saw after Christmas. Basically you can expect snowflakes in the air with a small chance of a light coating/dusting of snow in some neighborhoods. It’s plenty cold to stick, but there just isn’t much moisture available. Here’s an estimated radar image for tomorrow morning at 9AM showing a few light snow showers around Salem.

The snow showers will move in around 4 or 5AM and by 10 or 11 we will be done already. This is a very weak system.

Things clear up once we get through the morning. Temps will drop back below freezing Thursday after dark for another chilly night.

Friday will finally feel a bit milder with highs getting close to 50°. Saturday should be dry through the evening as well before rain moves in Sunday.

That takes us into next week, which at this time is looking quite wet with several storm systems moving through the region. Enjoy these last few dry days – even if they are freezing cold, and keep an eye out for a few morning snow flurries. 🙂

Winter is back

Honestly it just wouldn’t be February around here without some sort of arctic air, snow, and or ice. We have an impressive arctic airmass on our doorstep. Here’s what I’m expecting.

The rest of today will be showery with snow mixing in at times as many of you have already seen. I expect very little (if any) accumulation – maybe a dusting, but not much more than that. What I do expect are roads to possibly be icy tonight and tomorrow morning. With all these showers around it’s easy to imagine roads being slippery overnight. Right now the cold air is still hundreds of miles away, but it’s coming. Check out the temps as of 1PM today across the NW. Spokane really stands out sitting at a chilly 22° while 135 miles to the south in Pasco WA is still in the mid 40s.

Tonight we clear out fairly quickly. There are no indications that showers will stick around long. This will greatly limit the potential for seeing any snowfall here in the valley.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be extremely cold for this late in the season with highs in the upper 30s. Lows Wednesday morning will be particularly cold starting out in the upper teens! Wall to wall sunshine though. 🙂

Watching the forecast for Thursday carefully as we have a small chance at seeing some snow flurries or light snow showers that day, but we will address that as time gets closer.

Main concern will be for icy roads tonight and tomorrow morning. Stay safe and stay warm!

Cold weather

Wintry and cold weather is returning in a big way in the coming days. Here’s what the next 7 days look like (for the moment) with all the details you need to know.

Highlights and details

1.) Frequent showers along with a few sunbreaks will dominate the weather Sunday. Hail could mix in with the downpours.

2.) Monday will be a cooler version of Sunday. Sunbreaks, scattered showers with the possibility of hail and or snow mixing in at times. Snow levels close to around 1000′.

3.) Monday night through Tuesday morning temperatures drop into the 20s with scattered rain showers transitioning into a few light snow showers and flurries. Breezy north winds will make it feel extremely cold outside and any moisture left on the roads will freeze over making for a potentially icy commute Tuesday morning. At this time I am not expecting much snow at all as this airmass will be drying out quickly. I will have an updated forecast either Sunday night or Monday morning with projected snowfall totals (if any). For the time being plan on seeing little more than either a few flakes in the air to maybe an inch of snow at most late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Again, very tricky in these scenarios to determine snowfall totals. If you have lived around here for any given amount of time you know this to be true. We also all know that it doesn’t take much snow or ice to mess up the roads, so will be watching this closely.

4.) Our coldest temperatures come Tuesday night with clear skies and calm winds allowing temps to plummet into the lowers 20s or even the upper teens making for a very cold night!

5.) Sunny weather Wednesday and Thursday will help a little with the cold temps during the afternoon hours, but again, it will only help so much as we will be under the influence of a cold arctic airmass. By Thursday night/Friday we could see the return of either some light showers or possibly a few more snow showers, but too early to make any solid predictions yet. What’s certain is we have two days of chilly showers Sunday & Monday before things turn very cold Monday night. The colder weather should last through at least Thursday.

6.) A good dump of snow for the Cascades through all this with 12 to 20 inches of snow falling through Tuesday, and several inches expected in the Coast Range.

Okay have a safe and great rest of your weekend and keep an eye out for another update as we get closer to Monday evening!

Crazy

Record warmth has gripped the region exactly one year after (to the date) we experienced our worst ice storm in decades. Seems like distant memory right? We also tied our coldest high temperature ever recorded for the day on February 12th, 2021 with a high of 30°. But what a huge difference a year makes. We are now in the middle of a historic “heatwave” for mid February. I borrowed this graphic from Fox 12 Oregon showing some of the record highs set on yesterday (February 11th).

Temperatures as of 1PM look like this:

60s dominating the region again today both along the coast and in the valley. The only exceptions are locations near Eugene and south towards Roseburg where low level clouds and fog have limited the warming a bit.

Sunday will also be very warm as we see a third day of 60 degree temps. Really incredible!

Monday will probably feel like a slap in the face with highs in the upper 40s along with clouds and frequent showers. Close to a foot of snow is expected to fall in the Cascades and the valley should receive nice little soaking.

Maybe a leftover shower Tuesday before drying back out for Wednesday through next Saturday. Highs most of next week will be in the low to mid 50s.

Have a great weekend!

January 2022

January was a bipolar month with extremely wet conditions the first 7 days before abruptly switching to a mostly dry pattern for the remainder of the month. 3.71″ of rain fell in just the first week, but less than an inch fell in the remaining 24 days of the month.

January 2022 started off with a major rain and mountain snow storm January 3rd. This storm brought 2.34″ of rain in only 24 hours to Salem causing local flooding along creeks and on some streets. Heavy snow fell with this storm in both the Coast Range and the Cascades where nearly 3 feet of snow accumulated. The Willamette River in Salem topped out at 22.12′ which was the highest level in a few years. Flooding was extremely minor though and was limited to some parks and a few rural areas.

Things calmed down and stayed calm the rest of the month. Overall it was an incredibly “boring” month with very little weather action.

The only other highlight worth mentioning was the number of days with very chilly mornings. Salem reached the freezing mark 13 days in January. The coldest temp occurred on the 29th with a frosty low of 23°. Our warmest temp was 60° on the 12th.

Precip ended at 4.5″ which is 74% of normal making for a drier than average month. January 2022 ended just 0.1° above normal which is basically as close to average as you can get. Both the really chilly nights and the “mild” afternoons all balanced out quite well to give us an average month.

Looking ahead

So far February has been extremely tame and calm as well. We will be dry through Sunday (at least) with highs approaching 60 degrees several days later on this week and into the weekend. Of course this is nice for being outdoors, but terrible for the snowpack, and it only makes the continuing drought conditions worse than they already were. We really need a wet and cool second half of February and March to make up for the lost ground. The cooler weather in January helped preserve the snowpack fairly well despite the lack of precip, but I noticed more areas are beginning to slip below the 100% mark, and with mild temperatures in the forecast and no additional mountain snow coming for at least the next 7 days, these numbers will only drop more.

No need to freak out yet, but if we need to see a pattern change fairly soon…

That’s the scoop on January 2022.

Enjoy your evening and take care!