First things first, a few pics from the graupel and snow showers we had Thursday haha. I know that’s not what you’re on here for, but they are fun pics and they help me document our weather events. 🙂 Here’s a pic of snow sticking right along the ocean, and the second picture shows snow covering surfaces in Lincoln City at the Inn at the Spanish Head.

Okay, time for the forecast. It’s trickier than our usual snow forecasts and well, our usual are already pretty tricky lol… We have cool air in place with more moving in through the gorge tonight. Next there is a system spinning off the coast of northern California. I’ve pointed out the main energy band which will eventually swing up our way. This band of precip will bring rain and snow to the northern Willamette Valley, but more on that below.

This next image illustrates just how difficult the snow prediction is with this storm. Notice how it shows snow falling west of Salem in cities like Independence, Monmouth, and Dallas while rain falls east of Salem in locations like Stayton and Sublimity. This of course puts Salem right on the line. Meanwhile a band of snow stretches across the Portland metro area, so you can see why this is so tricky. This makes the snow forecast from last Christmas look so easy lol…

The next two things to consider with this storm are the temperatures, and the exact location of where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Temps are marginal with this storm, and in order to get snow down to the valley floor Sunday we are going to need help from steady moderate to heavy precip. Steady precip allows for the atmosphere to cool more than it might typically do through a process known as “evaporative cooling.” Evaporative cooling is what lead to our “surprise” snow event here in Salem back in January 2021. Often times temps can drop from the upper 30s down to as low as 31 or 32 degrees within an hour or two. A similar thing occurred Thursday when we saw our heavy graupel and snow shower.

What you need to know

A rain/snow mix will likely start during the early morning hours (6 to 9AM). Depending on how heavy the precip is, it could turn to snow fairly quickly or even start out as snow. This scenario really favors the western Willamette Valley as well as locations north closer to the gorge; however, anyone in the valley could end up with some snow. This will be an extremely close call (again, reference the image above), but it’s time to make a guess, so right now plan on just a little bit of snow falling across the region. Just don’t be surprised if the snow is either short lived, and or ends up staying as a very cold rain or wet snow mix that doesn’t actually stick.

Snow will fall across the Cascades passes as well as through the gorge, so plan on snow covered highways in those regions.

Phew! Time to just see what happens… One of these days I’m hoping we will actually see a decently easy snow forecast, but this is not it. Happy Sunday!!

What a wild way to finish out November! Salem recorded a wind gust of 44mph last night making it the strongest wind so far this season! Several power outages occurred due to the strong winds too. It’s also been quite the soaker. Take a look at the rainfall totals as of 8PM:

The wild weather of course reached the Cascades. Copious amounts of snow have fallen in the mountains and there is more on the way. Take Hoodoo Ski Area for example which had only 5 inches of snow just 4 days ago. They currently have 36 inches with another foot yet to fall later this week. Definitely a great start to the ski season! Alright, on to the forecast!! 😉

Tonight and Thursday morning

Rain showers will transition to rain and snow showers and even just snow showers for some areas later tonight. These “estimated” radar images like the one I have below are great for showing the big picture. The big picture tonight is that just about any location in the mid Willamette Valley could see not only a snow shower, but perhaps some sticking snow as well. Here is the estimated radar for 5AM showing a mix of rain and snow showers moving through the region. More details below.

Highlights

Don’t expect the snow to stick, but don’t be surprised if you wake up to some either. That’s not meant to be a wishy washy forecast lol, it’s quite literally the truth. Again, reference the image above and you can see this is not a widespread snowstorm type of situation. This is just scattered showers/snow showers. Furthermore, temps will be very marginal (32 to 35°) which also limits how many people will see snow around here in the next 24 hours. Expect anything from nothing at all (more likely scenario) – 2 inches tops with better chances of seeing snow in the higher elevations around the valley.

Thursday

The middle of the day will feature sunbreaks and a few showers of rain, hail, graupel (which is similar to a mix of hail and snow we get sometimes), and possibly snow again in the heavier showers. Highs in the low 40s.

Friday

This day could start off icy depending on how quick or slow we are to dry out Thursday night. Regardless, we will start the day off chilly with lows 30 to 32° for most areas. Highs in the lower 40s.

My hope is to write a fresh forecast Thursday evening with an updated look into the weekend as we flirt with snow again possibly Saturday or Sunday. Currently there is still too much up in the air to say anything more about it.

Stay safe and have a wonderful Thursday!!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I really do think it’s so important we appreciate what we have in life whether it be good health, a place to sleep, or a working vehicle. Even more so, we should also be thankful for the people we have in our lives and I hope you all are able to do that this week.

Okay, I have a small, but important change to the forecast. What was originally just going to be “a few sprinkles Friday night and Saturday morning” has turned into more of a steady light rain which is now expected to last Friday afternoon through Friday night. This will not be a major storm by any means though

Saturday is still looking dry.

Sunday will be stormier with frequent showers and breezy winds out of the south southwest at 15 to 25mph.

Decent travel conditions through the Cascades this week with a little bit of snow briefly Friday night (1 to 2 inches), dry Saturday, and then several inches of snow with breezy winds Sunday. Sunday will hands down be the worse travel day in the mountains this week. Passes will likely stay snowy through next week too. Speaking of next week, it is currently looking both cold and maybe even snowy too….. Nothing certain yet 😉 So stay tuned for updates!

This forecast should contain all the info you need to know regarding weather conditions for Thanksgiving and the Thanksgiving weekend. Let’s start with the basics. Here’s how the next 7 days are shaping up here in the mid valley.

Salem and the Willamette Valley

Wed – Sat: Dry. Clouds, areas of fog and sunbreaks at times. Maybe a few sprinkles Friday night/Saturday morning, but nothing big or of any concern.

Sun: Cool, rainy, and breezy.

No real issues over at the coast. Very similar weather to what we will see here in the valley with the minor exceptions being slightly more rain and at times stronger breezes, but again, nothing too crazy. There are no big storms on the horizon.

The Cascades and Central Oregon

Passes stay nice and dry through Saturday.

Sunday: The only day this week that will have some travel issues. Expect several inches of snow to accumulate in the passes throughout the day Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Be prepared for snowy passes if your travels take you across the mountains Sunday.

Now a quick look at how the month has played out so far.

As of the 22nd, Salem has seen 12 days with temperatures at or below freezing. We are quite literally running polar opposite of the sizzling warm temps we experienced back in October. Currently for the month we are sitting 5.5° below normal. Brrrr! Check out how the entire country is looking as of the 21st. Very chilly/cold in the west – a stark contrast to October for sure!

As far as precip goes, we had a real wet start to the month with 5 inches falling in the first seven days, but since then we’ve been mostly dry with the rain today breaking a 9 day dry streak – not bad for mid November! The rainfall today and the rain expected Sunday through next week will help Salem end the month above normal for precipitation.

Happy holidays! Be safe, stay healthy, and enjoy this festive time of year!!

Well it’s been several days since I had time for an update as it’s been a busy stretch with work. I was bummed out how last weekend’s forecast turned out, but that’s how it goes sometimes. On to our extremely busy forecast!

Tonight and Friday: Very windy and rainy. Around 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is forecast through early Saturday morning. This will lead to localized flooding especially along creeks and locations adjacent to clogged storm drains. In addition to the rain and possible flooding, winds could gust up to 45mph. I suspect we will see a number of power outages as well throughout the day.

Saturday: Scattered showers and sunbreaks including a chance for hail and brief but intense downpours similar to the ones we saw earlier this week.

Sunday: A chilly rain transitioning into showers. Highs in the low 40s. Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

Monday: Cold showers. A few sunbreaks at times.

Next week looks cold – especially for this time of year. No signs of any snow yet, but be sure to stay tuned for updates! Right now Tuesday and Wednesday are looking especially cold with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the low 40s, so prepare now for a solid freeze next week!

The Cascades

Our mountain passes and ski areas are going to get washed out with the wet and mild storm we have coming in now. Don’t let the “no snow” forecast trick you. Travel conditions through Friday night will be downright awful in the passes with heavy heavy rain and gusty winds. Nasty weather for sure.

Then the colder air moves in. Expect snowy passes Saturday through Monday with 12 to 20 inches falling above 2000 feet.

That’s all for now. Stay safe out there!