Category: Salem Area Forecast

Winter storm Thursday and Friday

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This will be a very short post, but an important one. I’m confident a winter storm will impact our region beginning Thursday morning through at least Friday morning. I’ll have a nice post filled with more details and shiny graphics tomorrow. For now, plan on weather disrupting your daily routines beginning Thursday morning with rough travel conditions lasting through at least the first half of Friday. This means snowy and icy roads during this period of time – even during the daytime hours on Thursday.

The situation this time is much more simple compared to last week which is why I have such high confidence two days out. We are not dealing with isolated showers, the timing does not have to fall in the middle of the night, and we don’t have to worry about southerly winds. We will be plenty cold, and moisture will be abundant with chilly breezes continuing out of the north for the duration of this event. The perfect recipe for wintry weather.

How much precip will fall, and what form of frozen precip will we experience are the two big questions still up in the air. At the moment it looks like the Salem area will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the course of the storm. Temperatures will be below freezing all day Thursday through at least Friday morning, so accumulations will occur on the roads. My best guess would be 1 to 3 inches of snow, some sleet, and a little bit of freezing rain. Keep in mind forecasting snow totals is tricky when we are bouncing back and forth between snow and ice.

Friday afternoon or for sure by Saturday morning we should warm up to begin the melting process. It’s mid February, so the snow and ice won’t stick around super long, but for the two days it’s here, it will effect your life to a degree.

Happy Tuesday and stay safe out there. I leave you with a map of the regional temperatures as of 7AM this morning. Brrrrrrr!!!!!

Icy roads tonight

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

This past Wednesday was an exciting day. I would guess that everyone at least saw snow in the air. It did not stick in most places, but some neighborhoods got a brief coating of white, and the higher hills around town received accumulating snow. These showery patterns with southerly winds are always so borderline. So many factors to consider which really can’t be forecasted very well far in advance. Had we been two degrees colder, or had the showers arrived earlier while it was still dark then we could have woken up to a snowy or more like slushy winter wonderland. We’ve seen it go both ways here. Overall I’m fairly happy with how the forecast has gone. Hopefully I’ve portrayed just how tricky forecasting snow with this particular setup really is.

The forecast

A few very isolated showers tonight through early Monday morning, and by isolated I mean extremely isolated, but it’s just enough to keep us from being totally dry. I greatly dislike when the weather does that lol… Because of the showers, we also have increased odds of icy streets or even a random (light) dusting of snow – especially in the higher hills. Watch out for icy roads the next few nights and mornings.

Monday – Wednesday

Count on it being cold, but mostly sunny and dry. Lows in the lower 20s by Wednesday morning. This part of the forecast feels pretty certain to me. Highs will gradually cool off each day under the influence of a NE breeze.

Mon: Low of 28°. High of 44°.

Tue: Low of 24°. High of 42°.

Wed: Low of 21°. High of 39°.

Looking ahead

This coming week has the potential to be even colder with a more classic setup for widespread snow or ice. The ingredients will be in place. Cold air, winds out of the north and east, and a low pressure approaching from the southwest. This exact setup is how we get our biggest snow and ice storms. Some examples of this setup in the past include last January, the ice storm just before Christmas 2022, the big ice storm we saw in February 2021, and the snowstorm we saw (for you old timers like me haha) way back in December 2016. These are all examples of this “classic setup.” No southerly winds, no scattered showers like we have seen this week. Just cold air and steady precip. Still not an easy forecast, but several of the trickiest factors are removed from the equation in this scenario.

The first factor yet to be determined is how deep the cold air will be. If the cold air is shallow, we end up with more sleet or freezing rain – something we have seen more often these past several years it seems. If the cold air is deeper then we have the potential for widespread snowfall. I like to share the graphic below to help illustrate this point.

The track of the low pressure next week will also determine the impact on us locally. Too far south and we stay dry and cold, too far north and we see all rain or freezing rain, but if it goes somewhere in the middle then we end up with a nice snowstorm. I’ve drawn a few lines on the map below. This map shows low pressure (storm centers) for Thursday morning. Ignore the lows to west of the slanted line as they are part of another storm system. I’ve placed a blue smiley face to mark western Oregon hehe. In a nutshell, lows to the north of the top horizontal line would generally give us either rain or a brief shot of freezing rain or snow before changing to rain. Lows to the south of the bottom line would for the most part leave us high and dry, and finally, the majority of the lows between the two horizontal lines would give us a snowstorm.

So you can see why making a call on how much snow, or if it will even snow is not really possible just yet. History tells me that by Monday evening I should have a much better idea of what to expect.

We do know that it will be cold for the next several days. Again, keep an eye out for icy roads and parking lots, and have a fun and safe rest of your weekend! I’ll be sure to keep you all in the loop once details become more ironed out.

Quick update

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

It’s late Tuesday evening, and time for a quick update.

Highlights

  • The amount of locations receiving snow tonight will go up dramatically compared to the past couple of nights/mornings.
  • Not everyone will see snowfall.
  • I’m going with nothing to 3 inches.
  • We could see snow showers on and off all day long, but the snow won’t stick during much of the day due to southerly breezes kicking in and “warming” us up to the upper 30s.
  • Roads will be clear most of the day.
  • As the winds calm down and the showers hang around Wednesday night which could give us a second round of sticking snowfall heading into early Thursday morning.

The main message is that moisture is dramatically increasing tonight through Wednesday night. Between now and roughly 10am anyone could see a coating of snow in their neighborhood. Our main issue the past two days with seeing snow is just a lack showers making it into the valley. Meanwhile, the coast has had no problem at all picking up a few inches of snow each day. These two images from the central Oregon coast show snow in Lincoln City and near Cape Kiwanda today. Pretty cool to see snow like this along our coast!

Tonight that is changing. Heavier and more numerous showers are set to move ashore overnight while we are cool and lacking a strong southerly breeze. This means anyone could see up to 2 or 3 inches of snow, but these are showers still, and I doubt everyone will get snow tonight.

It could snow all day tomorrow, but it likely won’t be sticking once we get past about 10am Roads should clear up quickly making travel tomorrow easy.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning could bring yet another round of snow showers as winds relax and cooler air moves back in. I hope to have a more detailed forecast tomorrow, so stay tuned!

Enjoy the snow and stay safe!

Forecast is still on track

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTS1 Comment

So far today has been uneventful, but nothing that was not expected. Heavier showers are still very much possible this afternoon. These showers could briefly dump a coating of hail or graupel, or even snow if you are “lucky” enough. Just keep in mind that today was suppose to be the “mildest” day of the week, but if things had worked out just right some of us could have seen snow this morning. So hard to know in this showery pattern.

The temperature map from 10AM this morning shows the wide range of temps possible today due to stronger showers. Notice Tillamook was sitting at just 34° while Salem was 42°, so we can see what could have happened this morning or still could happen later tonight if we see a heavier shower.

The airmass is also cooling off still. The slider below shows the difference between our 11AM temps Saturday versus 11AM today. FYI, the slider tool seems to only work if viewed on the website. I think the email version of the post stacks the images for you to click through which still works, but it’s not as cool as using the slider tool haha!! 🙂 https://bryanweatheralert.com/

Many valley and coastal locations are running 3 to 4 degrees cooler than this same time yesterday, and in some cases even more. Expect additional cooling tonight which is why I’m slightly more confident in spotty light snowfall accumulations tonight through Tuesday. The forecast of nothing – 2 inches each night/morning remains on track with roads possibly being icy or snow covered during the nighttime and early morning hours. Roads during the day should be just fine. So far today we have seen now snow; however, Monday or Tuesday could easily be a different story. Hopefully that’s helpful in clarifying what is going on and what to expect.

The rest of the forecast below is just copied and pasted from Saturday’s post. I’ll try and have a fresh post either Monday or Tuesday.

Mon & Tue: A few snow showers are possible each morning. Some people will wake up to snow, some of us to ice, and some with mostly bare roads. Hard to pinpoint when we are dealing with showers. Snowy and icy roads should clear up by late morning each day. This means life should be able to go on as normal roughly 10am to 6pm each day. Nothing – 2 inches of snow possible each morning. Anything that falls out of the clouds during the daytime hours will be in the form of snow thanks to the cold atmosphere, but it’s much less likely to stick during the day unless you find yourself at a higher elevation.

Wed: More widespread snow showers likely. 1 – 4 inches of snow possible at any elevation and even during the middle of the day as colder air works it’s way south. Roads could be bad all day long Wednesday. Subject to changes still.

Thu: Back to sunbreaks & scattered snow showers. Another inch or two of snow is possible during this time frame, and colder temperatures will make it tough for roads to melt off.

Super Bowl weekend and the week after look cold. Way too far out for details, but strong signals that we remain in a wintry pattern with more snow opportunities likely to present themselves.

Preparing for wintry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

Practical steps/most important info

Forecasting way out in time can be tricky, but it is very clear to me that we will be dealing with icy roads, snow, and cold at various times for the next few weeks. There are strong signals we will be in this wintry pattern for awhile. If you have snow tires and you think you would use them over the next few weeks then this weekend is the perfect time to put them on.

In the forecast below I’ve highlighted road conditions with red font, and important messages and snow totals in bold font.

If you don’t like driving in the snow or on icy roads, and you have a flexible schedule, then run your errands this weekend or else Mon & Tue afternoons. Plan on the nights and mornings being the worst for driving, and plan on slippery roads possibly all day long on Wed & Thu.

The current forecast for each individual day is just the best guess I can give with the information at hand. Don’t focus on details too much. Just keep in mind your travel plans and daily life could be effected by snow or icy roads pretty much each night and morning this week, and possibly all day long Wednesday and Thursday.

Details

Sunday: Anyone could wake up to a little snow. Yes, this will be our first shot as seeing snowfall. Wet snow, graupel, and rain are all likely with the heavier showers during the day. Roads could briefly become covered, but afternoon temperatures will melt things off. The vast majority of roads tomorrow should be fine. Chances for snowy roads always go up with elevation in this type of pattern. Expect a few sunbreaks at times during the day, but not as many as we have today. Estimated radar for Sunday morning around 8am does a good job at conveying the main message of scattered showers and snow showers.

Mon & Tue: A few snow showers are possible each morning. Some people will wake up to snow, some of us to ice, and some with mostly bare roads. Hard to pinpoint when we are dealing with showers. Snowy and icy roads should clear up by late morning each day. This means life should be able to go on as normal roughly 10am to 6pm each day. Nothing – 2 inches of snow possible each morning. Anything that falls out of the clouds during the daytime hours will be in the form of snow thanks to the cold atmosphere, but it’s much less likely to stick during the day unless you find yourself at a higher elevation.

Wed: More widespread snow showers likely. 1 – 4 inches of snow possible at any elevation and even during the middle of the day as colder air works it’s way south. Roads could be bad all day long Wednesday. Subject to changes still.

Thu: Back to sunbreaks & scattered snow showers. Another inch or two of snow is possible during this time frame, and colder temperatures will make it tough for roads to melt off.

Super Bowl weekend and the week after look cold. Way too far out for details, but strong signals that we remain in a wintry pattern with more snow opportunities likely to present themselves.

The maps below illustrate this quite well with cold anomalies centered over or very near to the pacific northwest this Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, and even all the way into Tuesday the 11th with no sign of the pattern really changing. This lends me higher than usual confidence that we will be dealing with wintry weather for quite some time…

At the moment it’s sunny at my house, so I might head outside for a bit. Stay safe and enjoy the wild weather as much as possible. 🙂

Wintry weather

On By bryanweatherIn Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The forecast and weather the past almost 3 weeks has been incredibly stable.  I’ve personally enjoyed the sunny weather, but it’s all coming to an end.  Lots going on and much to cover, so let’s dive in!

Super short version

We have a rainy and breezy day for Friday. Saturday will be chilly with sunbreaks and showers. Sunday – Wednesday we maintain a shower and sunbreak pattern, but temperatures will be cold enough that snow could accumulate anywhere in the valley, and at times even along the coast. Accumulations are most likely between 6pm to 10am (during the nighttime and early morning hours). By the time we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures might be cold enough for snow to stick at anytime of the day. No major snow storms are currently being forecasted, but with cold air moving in and storms close by, things could easily change…

Details

Friday:  Rain and wind will greet us as we head out our doors Friday morning.  Classic northwest stormy weather.  Rainfall could be rather heavy at times, and winds will generally gust in the 20 to 30mph range, so not too wild.  Expect sunbreaks later in the day.  Cooler air begins to move in and our temperatures start dropping.

Saturday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow should stay in the Coast Range and Cascade Range during this day. This estimated radar image actually portrays my thoughts very well. Notice blue (snow) staying in the our mountain ranges, and also notice the showery nature of the precip with some areas getting very little action.

In general, this type of scattered shower pattern is what we can expect through next Wednesday with the biggest difference being the gradual arrival of colder temps as time goes on.

Sunday & Monday:  Showers and sunbreaks.  Accumulating snow will be limited to the nighttime and morning hours, and only some of us will see snow due to the scattered nature of the showers. Because of those factors, there really is no way to pinpoint exactly who will score snow in this type of pattern. Afternoon temperatures rise to around 40 degrees each day.  Throw in a few sunbreaks and road conditions during the daytime hours should be good for normal activities here in the valley.

If this was regular shower pattern then nobody would notice if they got a few hundredths of an inch of rain versus a third of an inch. In this case it makes a huge difference between a few harmless flakes or a blanket of 3 inches of snow.

Tuesday & Wednesday:  Similar to Sunday and Monday except we will have a slightly colder airmass these days which means a heavy snow shower could briefly cover all surfaces (including roads) even during the middle of the day. Highs in the upper 30s and lows around 29/30°. For now I’m going with nothing to 2 inches of snow each night, and up to an inch possible during the daytime hours.

Thursday – Saturday:  A wide range of solutions are out there, but I can tell you with a fair amount of confidence that we stay cold with additional snow chances very much on the table. In fact, there are strong signals we stay in a colder pattern for the foreseeable future beyond next weekend.  Winter is making it’s comeback!

Hazards

Icy streets. Due to the widely scattered nature of the showers we are expecting, skies will have better chances at clearing out each night. This means icy streets for your neighborhood – even if you don’t get snow. Frozen water leftover from showers can cause just as many issues. As the week goes on and temperatures cool off even more, I expect road issues to last longer into the daytime hours. Just be extra careful on those paved surfaces in the coming days.

Things I’m watching for:

An increase in moisture would equal significant snow totals. This is totally in the realm of possibility with this specific setup. The chart below shows some hefty snowfall totals (legit snowstorms) mixed in there for Salem. At the moment such outcomes are in the minority, but things can change quickly.

On the other hand, should moisture trend to the drier side (also unlikely, but possible), then this time frame could end up being rather uneventful.

My best guess

Expect scattered snow accumulations of nothing to 2 inches both Sunday and Monday mornings with lows around 32 and highs around 40°. Remember, some of us will probably end up with nothing.

More widespread snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still not guaranteed due to the showery nature of the pattern, but odds increase thanks to the colder temperatures. Highs in upper 30s. Lows 28 to 30°.

The mountains will of course see tons of snow. 2 to 3 feet of new snow between now and next Thursday for the Cascades, and at least several inches up in the Coast Range. Be prepared for snowy roads whether you are traveling east or west of the valley.

Stay safe and happy Friday! I’m sure I’ll have additional updates as often as time allows!

5 more dry days

On By bryanweatherIn 2024/2025, Extra!!, Salem Area Forecast, The Mountains and Beyond, WEATHER ALERTSLeave a comment

The super quick version

We have about 5 more days of dry weather before rain finally returns to our region Thursday night or Friday. Mostly sunny skies, cold nights, and highs in the upper 40s will continue through Wednesday. Thursday should be dry, but with increasing clouds, and actual rain returns late that night. Showers should continue through next weekend with lowering snow levels. Colder and possibly snowier weather is possible as we head into February. More on that at the end of this post. 🙂

Details

As you all know by now, the deep south had an extremely rare and historic snowstorm this past week. Actual blizzard conditions where observed in many locations from Louisiana to Florida. These photos of the snow covered and frozen bayou and blizzard like conditions along the freeway heading into Florida are just amazing and almost unbelievable.

Here in Salem we got gently brushed (again) by that large mass of frigid arctic air. That is why our air has been dry, our days have been sunny with no more fog, and our nighttime lows have dipped well into the 20s several degrees below average. This weekend we are again getting brushed by a weak lobe of colder air. That’s the cause of the breezy winds we are seeing today out of the north. The result is colder lows well into the 20s with dry and sunny days.

This satellite image shows just how sunny and clear the entire pacific northwest is at the moment. The snow cover in the mountains and higher elevations also really stands out.

Here’s the next 7 days

Looking ahead

Ten days ago I put out a forecast mentioning the potential for colder (possibly snowy) weather later in the month. I was fairly vague because it was still a long ways off plus the weather models had a large spread of outcomes (disagreement) regarding where the cold air would end up. We now know it dove through the middle of the nation.

Next Sunday (Feb 2nd) models seem to be honing in on the colder arctic air moving MUCH closer to us, and possibly directly over us. When it’s more than 7 days out like it is at the moment, we look for consistency and trends. Below is a compilation of multiple model runs from the past few days showing the weather pattern up around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere for Sunday morning February 2nd. Blue and or green shading is much colder than average, and the warm red and orange colors are just that – warmer than average lol… 😉

Definitely a clear trend for colder air here in Oregon, but how far south and how far west or east it goes will have a profound effect on our weather. Some of the solutions you see above would give us nothing but cold rain. Many of those solutions would put us in one of those tricky snow shower setups, and some of those would give us a full on snowstorm and or arctic blast. Odds are increasing that we will see something wintry, but still a little too early to get overly excited.

One more little piece of evidence telling us that something snowy might be heading our direction is this final chart which I’ve shared before. Each horizontal line going from left to right is a possible outcome for how many inches of snow Salem could see on those dates (the dates are located along the bottom). This model tends to overdue precip totals a little bit, so pay attention to lines showing 2 or more inches of snow.

Typically during wintertime I will see maybe one to three lines showing snowfall, but when I start counting 20+ then I really start paying attention. Lots of time for things to change of course, but keep this one on your radar. In the meantime, stay safe, and enjoy the sunny and chilly weather!