So far summer 2022 has started off much slower than last summer, but we are finally going to see things change (briefly) as a dome of hot air builds up towards us from the desert southwest. You can see the dome of heat is pretty much right over the Pacific Northwest by Sunday. The map below essentially shows temperature anomalies up around 18 thousand feet in the atmosphere.

Here’s what I’m expecting:

This will be a very typical heatwave with temps spiking close to 100° on Sunday before cooling back down on Tuesday. In fact, most of next week will stay close to average. No sign of any long term hot spells like we’ve seen far too often over the past several summers.

A question I’ve been getting is “will Oregon see a wet summer?” Based off of long range maps, my very best guess is yes, probabilities seem to favor a “wetter” summer. Problem is, this statement can be very misleading and here’s why. Take July for example, on average Salem only sees rainfall between 1 and 2 days each July which means 3 rainy days technically equals a wetter than normal July by that metric. However, if you do the math, this still leaves us with 28 days or 4 full weeks of totally dry weather for the month, so can we really just call 3 rainy days a “wet month?” My answer there is no. If you want to know what a truly wet month looks like then think back to April or last December lol. Hopefully my point is coming across here okay… To help illustrate this further, check out this chart showing total rainfall in Salem for July going back to 1970.

For the record, the average rainfall for July is just under half an inch. 1993 is the last time we saw more than an inch of rain in July. Goes to show just how reliably dry this month is for us. If we do manage to receive half an inch of rain this July, it will make it the wettest one in 11 years!! Similar story for August and the first half of September too. Our summers are reliably dry and that’s what I like about our climate. It’s so awesome having a 2 – 3 month period of warm mostly dry weather for getting outdoors.

Bottom line is, it doesn’t take much rainfall to make it a “wetter than normal summer” around here. Long range charts do show the potential for rain and showers sometime between July 4th and July 7th. Poor timing if it interferes with Independence Day celebrations, but we should quickly return to dry summer like weather afterwards as we head further into the month.

My best guess is this will not be one of those summers where we go nearly 2 months without any rain as we have seen many times in the past decade. I expect showers will pop up a few times through the next couple of months; however, just remember that should we see showers, the warm, sunny, and dry days will still far outnumber the “wet” days.

I will keep a close eye out for any rain chances, but unless we have more big heatwaves or a rare summertime rainstorm (or thunderstorm outbreak) on the horizon, I probably won’t be posting a whole lot as this is our quiet time of year – not to mention it’s the one time of year I get to recharge before heading back into the classroom. 😉 🙂

Have a wonderful weekend.

Be careful and be kind to each other. 🙂