Winter is done and it’s time to see how my outlook faired when compared to reality. This is the full meal deal with lots of info, so make sure you’re sitting comfortably for this one lol 🙂 . If you’re looking for a forecast just know that we have a few showers coming in tonight through Thursday morning and then one more cool and showery day on Saturday before we dry out and warm up setting the stage for a very mild and sunny stretch of weather next week.

WINTER 2020/2021 REVIEW

Back in October it appeared as though we had a moderate La Nina on tap and I laid out several things that were more likely to occur during a La Nina winter based off of similar winters in the past. In case you wish to travel back in time to see what my thoughts and predictions were you can check out my 2020/2021 winter outlook here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2020/09/28/winter-2020-2021-outlook/

1.) Wetter than normal: (OKAY). Nov and Dec were both slightly below normal, Jan was fairly wet, Feb came in a little above normal, but March finished out well below average. When all was said and done, Salem ended up right around average in the precip category. I stated in my winter outlook that a dry winter was very unlikely, and that part held true. This winter was definitely not a dry one, but to call it a wetter than normal winter would be a little bit of a stretch.

2.) Above normal mountain snow: (GOOD). We started the season off strong with above normal snowfall in November, but a warm and slightly drier than normal December brought the snowpack below normal by the time we rolled into January. Fortunately a few well timed storms in December kept enough snow on the ground through Christmas break to keep most of the ski areas operational – something we did not have the previous December.

The snowpack didn’t really increase much though until the end of January when we saw our brief snow event, and again with the colder weather during mid February. The cooler and wetter weather in February brought tons of snowfall to the mountains and pushed us above normal again. Occasional cool systems through the month of March maintained a very healthy snowpack as we headed into spring. With all things considered I call this forecast a hit with the snowpack being at or above normal for the majority of the winter.

3.) Flooding: This was not as much a forecast as it was more of a warning or heads up. I’m more than happy to have not had a big flood this year – something I think everyone could agree on… Flooding events are significantly more common during La Nina winters and that’s just a fact. We had no flooding on the Willamette River this year; however, we did have some localized flooding on several of our smaller rivers and streams in the region with a wet system in mid December, and then on a larger scale again in the first half of January when the valley saw 2 inches of rain in 24 hours with a storm on the 12th. Odds favor we see another La Nina next winter which means I would again sound the alarm for the potential for major flooding as this seems to be a trademark of La Nina winters around here.

4.) Snowfall. (GOOD). If you recall, I mentioned how the odds of seeing at least a little bit of snow increases with La Nina winters. Sure enough we saw some with our surprise snow event on January 26th which dumped a quick 1 to 4 inches of snow (depending on location) across Salem, and of course we also had our historic ice storm in February. So while the snow was short lived right here in Salem, we still picked up both snow and ice this year reinforcing the statement that La Nina winters tend to deliver at least some snow or ice. The official snowfall total I’m going with is 2.5″ and 1.25″ of freezing rain.

As far as wind goes, right here in Salem we had no major windstorms (widespread 50mph+ gusts). That said, the region did experience several minor to moderate wind events which brought scattered power outages to the Willamette Valley each time with the January 12th storm being the strongest windstorm

Next I have a graphic with the biggest highlights from this past winter.

The major ice storm is hands down the number one highlight. You can find my recap of that storm right here: https://bryanweatheralert.com/2021/02/23/ice-storm-2021-recap/

This second graphic shows how each month stacked up compared to average in both temperature and precipitation. I also included total rainfall per month, snowfall, and ice accumulation. Kind of a nice and neat way of seeing how each month faired.

Having both December and January on the much warmer side of things is unusual for a La Nina. As far as the precip went, the wet January and February balanced out pretty well the three drier months leaving us right at average for the whole period. Looking ahead, early indications are La Nina will return in the fall. This is represented on the chart below which shows how most first year La Nina winters are usually followed by a second La Nina winter.

If next winter is indeed a La Nina, I would put my money on a more active year with a decent chance of a wetter than normal winter. I would also expect at least some valley snow again, a higher than usual chance for major flooding, an increased risk of a significant windstorm, and a healthy mountain snowpack. But let’s not get too excited or ahead of ourselves lol. I enjoy every season and the weather each one has to offer. I’m looking forward to some beautiful sunny spring weather – maybe a few thunderstorms mixed in (if we are lucky), and then hopefully a nice and warm, but wildfire free summer. 🙂