Time to admit it. My forecast for Tuesday went up in flames. It was awful and hands down the most stressful day as weather forecaster I’ve had in a very long time. I think I had 3 or 4 dreams last night about Salem not getting any snow and then I woke up and remembered that it was actually true 😦 ugh!!!! What a terrible day. My gut instinct told me that we were never going to get the 2 – 5 or 2 to 7 inches that some forecasts (including the National Weather Service) were putting out, but I still would have thought we ended up with at least a dusting of snow and that just did not happen. Originally, I was betting on close to an inch for some with 2 or 3 inches for many of us. That did not happen.
I’m so sorry to all my “fans” and followers that I was so far off. Below I have some important take aways to keep in mind for future events and a recap of what happened yesterday.
Snow fell just about everywhere north of Woodburn, so we were actually not very far from snow at all. Snow also fell south of us in parts of Eugene, Springfield, and the area around Sweet Home. Check out this depressing radar image from last night. Take note of the rainy (green) blob centered over Salem and notice the snow (blue) to our north and to our south 😦 grrrrr how frustrating!!! I guess there’s always next time.
- Another point worth mentioning was how cold the temperatures were up in the atmosphere above us Tuesday morning. They were colder than what we had Sunday morning which gave me hope that snow would be on the way.
- We did have snow showers much of the morning, and some of you did have a dusting of snow right around 6 to 8am. So those two aspects worked out well.
- Roads froze up and the cold air did move in as expected. It just came in after the moisture left our region – how typical….
- For my viewers who live north of Woodburn the forecast stayed on track. Below are a few traffic cam pics from this morning showing the winter wonderland that came oh so close to Salem, but yet stayed so far away:
Some things to remember
- No matter how cold it is up in the atmosphere, it is tough to have sticking snow when precipitation is light and when winds are out of the south. It can be done, but those two factors make it much more difficult to achieve.
- I made my own website so I could have my own forecast for all of you, and that’s what I should have done. After all, they don’t pay me the big bucks just to copy and paste other forecasts right?? I have lots of fun, joy, and pride in making my own forecast every single time I update this website, and I go to great lengths to make sure it’s accurate. With so much on the line yesterday I went with a blend of my own personal take on what was going to happen combined with what the “professionals” were calling for. It’s time for me to call my own shots 😉
- Even if I had called my own shots, I still would have been wrong. We did not see any snow last night here in Salem which went against my original forecast.
- I learned some other things about how to better read weather soundings and a few other technical/nerdy weather charts that will help improve my forecasts in the future.
- I guess it’s on to the next storm!!!!
Bryan Weather Alerts 